Despite the strains imposed by Greece on the euro area, Italy was able to borrow Monday medium and long term 5.25 billion euros expected without any increase in interest rates. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti presented in Rome on 4 December 2011 a new austerity plan of 20 billion euros by 2014
Italy has a bond issue passed Monday by taking test 5.25 billion euros in the medium and long term interest rates steady at almost three years, despite strong investor concerns for the euro area due to blockage policy in Greece.
The total demand of investors amounted to 9 billion euros, allowing the Treasury, which were up between 3.5 and 5.25 billion euros, reaching its maximum target, announced the Bank of Italy . As part of its main issue, the Italian Treasury has raised 3.5 billion of securities maturing in 2015 at a rate of 3.91% against 3.89% in the last similar operation on April 12. He also issued 542 million of securities due 2020 at a rate of 5.33%, 651 million of securities due 2022 at a rate of 5.66% and € 557 million of securities due 2025 at a rate of 5.90%.
The Bank of Italy does not compare the rates of these bonds with those recorded during previous shows. "The show went well overall," said Elia Lattuga, bond strategist in the bank UniCredit. "The maximum was reached," a "particularly good result" that the market was marked "by difficulties this morning," added Chiara Manenti Intesa Sanpaolo.
The political stalemate in Greece, which still has no government more than a week after the parliamentary elections, has plunged European stock markets Monday and caused a fever in the bond market.
Despite the success of this program by Rome, the Italian market also remained very tense. Secondary market, where exchange debt already issued, the rates in Italy were part of ten years at 5.724% to 5.495% cons 10:25 GMT Friday night while the Milan Stock Exchange 2.90% let go.
Friday, Italy, which faced since mid-April to a sharp rebound in rates after a strong expansion in the first quarter, recorded a great success on the debt market by placing 10 billion shares to three months and one year at declining rates.
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The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande. Its program in effect no longer perceived as a threat to investors. Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night.
The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande, whose program is no longer perceived as a threat by investors . "The week promises to be high risk, but paradoxically Greece weigh maybe more in the balance as the French election," said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at Credit Suisse.
Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night. The Paris Bourse certainly gives ground for several weeks, but this trend is common to all European financial centers, plagued by fears about the economy of the eurozone. And the cost of refinancing the public debt of France has not increased more between the two rounds of presidential elections.
No challenge to the Treaty on the financial stability
Paris has borrowed Thursday nearly 7.5 billion euros at rates down. "Mr. Holland should not undermine the Treaty on European financial stability, but rather add to it a component of growth. On this point, it is not alone in wishing that in Europe, which tends to reassure "said Ms. Plagnol.
Long reluctant, Berlin is ready to work to "a growth pact for more competitiveness," the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, would also give this theme "at the center of the agenda" European. Mr. Holland on Sunday evening could have an exchange on these topics with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to one of his advisers.
If revenues diverge, more tracks are already being considered: increase the borrowing capacity of the European Investment Bank (EIB), spend more European structural funds in the euro area, establish 'project bonds', the European bonds for a specific project, or authorize the European Stability Mechanism (MES) to help a struggling industry and not just a state.
For Laurence Boone, chief economist for Europe U.S. investment bank Merrill Lynch, BofA, the alternation in France does not worry because "investors expect to conduct a moderate social policy".
Greece in the heart of concerns with the rise of extremist parties
Greece, whose people voted on Sunday for early elections, however crystallizes much more concern. Both sides pro-austerity, PASOK (Socialist) and New Democracy (right), who ruled together in a coalition since November 2011 collapsed in parliamentary elections Sunday, bringing together between 31 and 37% against more 77% in 2009, according to exit polls.
If they were confirmed, this collapse would make almost impossible the formation of a coalition government by both parties to continue the austerity dictated by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. "The country's creditors (IMF, EU and ECB) may at least temporarily suspend their aid," worries Stephane Deo at UBS. "The government can more quickly pay its civil servants and pensions, which will lead to very high tensions on financial markets," he warns.
In >>> Direct: Soon the results of the second round of the presidential election between Sarkozy and Holland
The UK GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012, after falling 0.3% in the previous quarter. British Prime Minister David Cameron
The UK has not escaped the downturn. Its economy has officially fallen into recession earlier this year following a contraction of its economy for the second consecutive quarter, a surprise for analysts and bad news for the government of David Cameron.
According to one official estimate released Wednesday, the British economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012, after falling 0.3% last quarter. The country is thus technically back in recession, which was released in late 2009 after five straight quarters of decline in activity during the financial crisis.
Despite very mixed economic indicators, most analysts were betting on a slight rise of 0.1% of GDP, which would have avoided the country to be in the same situation as the states of the eurozone such as Spain or Italy, also entered into a recession.
This performance-up against Prime Minister David Cameron in a difficult position: it should indeed revive criticisms about the draconian austerity policies of his government by the opposition Labor Party accused of having "killed growth" in the name of a struggle against deficits.
The pound is distributed sharply lower against the euro and the dollar after the announcement of the contraction of the UK economy. The London Stock Exchange remained, however, directed slightly up gaining 0.44% to 5,734,67 points to 0900 GMT.
The action is Danone rebound Monday, with investors relieved after the announcement of the takeover by Nestle's division of child nutrition Pfizer, a redemption of $ 11.85 billion which the French group was also in the running.
At 2:50 p.m., the title Danone raises of 1.83% to 53.39 euros in a market down sharply (-2.15%).
"The rise in the stock is clearly related to the fact that it's not Nestle and Danone buys Pfizer infant nutrition. The price is very high and the market would like Danone uses his money for something else, "said one operator
. L action Danone had lost 3.55% Friday following a tip that he was outbid and proposed $ 11 billion to buy up Pfizer Nutrition
…. Analysts say ….. Danone had not the means to finance a transaction of this magnitude, even if it reduced its debt by nearly half since the acquisition of Numico in 2007 to 12.3 billion euros
. Danone's net debt was $ 6.6 billion end of 2011 euros, against 12 billion after the acquisition of Numico.
Natixis, the analyst Pierre Tegner observes that "the strategic importance of the lost battle (against Nestle) depend on the group's ability to recover some assets, either in Asia Southeast Asia (Philippines, etc..) and / or Latin America. "
According to Kyodo, Danone could increase its stake in Yakult Honsha to 28% against 20% today, and asked the group of Japanese drinks to name one of its managers to an executive position.
The resumption of international trade should take place sooner than expected.
It's time for optimism for international trade. This is the conclusion of the study HSBC Global Connections: Trade Forecast (February 2012), which provides a faster growth of international trade from 2014, one year earlier than expected, according to previous analyzes. Between 2014 and 2026, world trade is expected to grow by 86%. Its annual growth is estimated at 3.8% until 2017, then mark a sharper acceleration beyond, with an annual growth of 6.2% from 2017 to 2021.
The biggest concern now trade oil, gas, petrochemical, automotive and electronic goods and equipment. But things are changing. With the threat of global warming and the demand for competitiveness, companies must now be closer to markets where they want to trade. This new situation allows to identify new growth areas. Here are the main:
– Electric power: all regions of the world are now seeking to develop non-fossil energy: nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind …
– Containers & Packaging: crates, boxes, and all objects to package and transport goods. This highly competitive industry is expected to grow particularly strong in America (nearly 10% annually over the next five years in Latin America and 8.9% in North America).
– Metallurgy: prepared binders for foundry. The annual growth forecast for this sector should be 8.8% in the next five years.
– Coal: coal and pellets. Demand is high worldwide, and especially in China which produces half the world's coal, but who is also the first consumer.
– Processed food: demand for more sophisticated food is high everywhere in the world.
– Electrical Control Systems: the development of new electrical power sources to the emergence of demand control systems and automatic control, especially in Asia, Europe and North America.
– Infrastructure: The sector is large, since the production of metal bars to the research services and consulting. This sector, vital for global economic growth, is expected to grow 110% in the next 15 years.
The CAC 40 closed sharply lower, 2.47%, amid concerns about the situation in Spain and Italy, while the slowdown in Chinese growth is stronger than expected. Traders at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
The Paris Stock Exchange closed sharply lower Friday amid concerns persist about the situation in Spain and Italy, and while the slowdown in Chinese growth is stronger than expected. The CAC 40 gave 2.47%, passing under the 3200 points to 3189.09 points, in a trade volume of 3.697 billion euros.
On other European markets, Frankfurt fell 2.36% and 1.03% of London. The Eurostoxx 50 index lost 2.58% on its side. "We broke a very important technical level, that of 3200 points, this does not bode well. We will start next week in very bad disposition, "warned Frederic Rozier, manager of equities at Messchaert Private Banking Growth Slows
.
The Chinese trend has been sealed, early interactions, confirmed by the slowing of Chinese growth, which reached its lowest level in almost three years (+8.1% yoy in the first quarter). "Investors not expect a downturn as fast. It should be remembered that any slowdown in China has a strong impact on the global economy, "said Mr. Rozier. However, for Renaud Murail at Barclays Bourse," it is almost certain that stakeholders would not reacted so negatively to this statistic a few weeks ago. Currently, less bad news is amplified. "
The climate has been sealed by the blood of net borrowing rate of Italy and Spain in the bond market, yields on 10 year Spanish flirting again with 6%. Rome suffered a further decline in industrial production in February, while economists were betting on a rise, while the debt of Spanish banks to the ECB in March smashed the record already history for the previous month. "This suggests two disturbing elements: access not only of the Spanish market remains difficult, but they still have a strong need for short-term liquidity," said Alexandre Baradez at Saxo Bank.
The bank attacked very
The banking sector in the fourth largest economy in the euro area of particular concern for investors because it is very exposed to the real estate market in the doldrums in the country. In this context, anxiety, low morale of U.S. households has compounded the disappointment of stakeholders.
As for values, the banking sector has been particularly attacked, Societe Generale yielding 5.79% to 17.80 euros, BNP Paribas 5.22% to 30.40 euros and Credit Agricole 5.08% to 3.91 euros. More cyclical stocks have suffered heavily from the slowdown in China, the image of Peugeot (-5.15% to 9.84 euros), Lafarge (-4.94% to 30.88 euros) or Vinci (-4 , 21% to 34.83 euros). L'Oreal was the only value of the CAC 40 close to achieving in the green (1.15% to 92.14 euros) after the beginning of 2012 found "promising" with sales up sharply in the first quarter.
Capgemini (-5.12% to 29.92 euros) suffered from lower sales forecasts for 2012-2013 the number two Indian IT Infosys Technologies. Atos took to 2.31% to 44.37 euros, while a note from Morgan Stanley suggests the establishment of "strategic options" for the group if the title is still low. Stallergenes has granted 3.34% to 42.66 euros after confirming its annual growth target following an increase of 7% of its turnover for the first quarter. Finally, Gold by Gold unscrewed from 6.01% to 6.72 euros in its first day of trading on Euronext Paris.
Officials of the European Union hopes that the leaders of G20 countries will agree to contribute more to IMF resources in April after the agreement Friday on increasing the power of the wind fire-euro area financial.
The IMF seeks to double its war chest through raising $ 600 billion of new resources to help countries struggling with the fallout from the debt crisis in the euro area.
But most G20 countries have said that before they do inject money into the IMF, the euro area was first put more money to solve the crisis of sovereign debt.
This was done on Friday finance ministers of 17 countries in the euro area in agreeing to carry 500 to 700 billion combined capacity of two rescue fund.
"It is important to ensure that the IMF has sufficient resources to fulfill its systemic role in the global economy and yesterday's agreement within the Eurogroup (…) is very important in this regard, "he told reporters the Danish Minister of Economy Vestager Margrethe, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union.
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 countries must discuss an increase in IMF resources on April 22 in Washington.
"It's time to increase IMF resources. It is in the interest of all countries, the focus is on Europe, but it is very important to recognize that there are also vulnerabilities in other parts of the globe, "added Minister
." I think and hope – and this is to How we work – we will reach an agreement in April, "she said
." We Europeans, we can get to re ; unions spring the Washington sense of accomplishment ", for his part said Jörg Asmussen, Executive Board Member of the European Central Bank
… Five …… major emerging countries, said the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), however, have said they would support an increase if they were accorded a more important within the IMF.
The euro area has already said it would contribute € 150 billion more resources to the IMF. The Czech Republic will contribute 1.5 billion euros, 5.3 billion of Denmark, Poland and Sweden 6.3 billion to 6.9 billion euros.
"The EU calls on other G20 countries and financially strong IMF members to contribute to this effort," we read in a paper for the Washington meeting.
The United States believes that European governments have not stopped the illegal subsidies to Airbus and will accordingly implement the first stage of the procedure before the Sanctions 'World Trade Organization (WTO), said Friday the U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk.
This initiative can in theory lead to penalties amounting to billions of dollars imposed on EU products.
"We refuse to remain inactive while companies and American workers are disadvantaged," said Ron Kirk in a statement.
The text clarifies the intent of the United States to ask the WTO to say whether the EU has complied with a previous decision of the organization de ; favorable state aid to Airbus.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended almost unchanged Monday after slight correction suffered last week, investors focusing on actions related to metals and blue chips that have underperformed ; the market lately.
The Nikkei gained 0.07% or 6.77 points, to 10,018.24. In contrast, the Topix broader, yielded 0.71 points (-0.08%) to 851.82.
This evolution of the Nikkei, helped by the decline of the yen against the dollar, was recorded in a few exchanges expanded.
"Even if the Nikkei falls below 10,000 points, Japanese institutional investors are not going to take profits because they have more net sellers in the rally (in recent months)," said Kenichi Hirano , a director at Tachibana Securities.
Technical analysts believe that the decline of last week could lead investors who missed the bull cycle in action since the beginning of the year to enter the market.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange was down 1.1% Friday, accusing its largest percentage decline in two months. But it is still up over 18% since the beginning of the year.
In February, China recorded its largest trade deficit over the past decade. A sign of the deteriorating economic conditions of countries, some analysts say. China recorded in February its largest trade deficit in over a decade.
This is a record. China recorded in February its largest trade deficit in over a decade, from 31.48 billion dollars, due to a surge in imports, particularly oil, according to figures reported Saturday by China Customs.
Imports jumped 39.6% year on year to 145.96 billion dollars, while exports rose 18.4% to 114.47 billion USD, have detailed the Customs on their website.
Imports grew far beyond the expectations of economists polled by Dow Jones agency, who on average expected 26% increase, while exports are well below their forecasts, which were 28.8% increase.
The expected deficit by these economists was 8.5 billion only. This is the largest trade deficit ever recorded in a single month by China since at least 2000, according to Dow Jones agency.
Slowdown
For the first two months of the year, China has a trade deficit of 4.25 billion. In January, it had a surplus, but the volume of China's foreign trade had shrunk because of the impact of Chinese New Year celebrations. The high level of imports is mainly due to oil imports, which hit last month to a record volume of 23.64 million tons, amounting to 19.47 billion dollars.
China recorded a trade deficit frequently earlier this year, but in 2011 it had only reached $ 890 million for the first two months of the year.
The deficit in February in addition to other economic indicators released reflecting a slowdown in the second world economy.
"Overall, we see an acceleration of deteriorating economic conditions," responded Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura Securities agency quoted Dow Jones. "The slowdown occurs more rapidly than expected in the government," he said.
The record trade deficit could prompt Beijing to further relax its monetary policy to support economic activity, while Chinese exporters are suffering from the impact of the debt crisis in Europe and weak economic growth in the U.S. .
