If the benefits of U.S. distributors to appear this week are as unimpressive as the results published so far companies, keeping Wall Street at the height of nine months will probably be difficult to justify.
Specialists believe that stock market investing in the U.S. market may resist a further increase, even with an agreement in the Greek case Monday and indicators confirming that the recovery is underway to United States.
Trading will resume on Tuesday, the markets are closed Monday for President's Day.
For the year 2012 was less than two months and the benchmark fund managers, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up over 8%. It is already higher than what many analysts were predicting the end of the year.
The index ended Friday at 1,361 points, its highest level since May 2011. In December, analysts polled by Reuters estimated that the index would end from 2012 to 1340 points.
If the index passed beyond 1370, it would be at its highest since June 2008, to its level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which took place in September 2008.
As for Dow Jones, he approaches the psychological level of 13,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite, that of 3000 points.
OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE
At the NYSE, 85% to 90% of the shares are treated above their 50-day moving average, said Bruce Zaro at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston. This is normally a sign that the market is overbought.
Bruce Zaro does not exclude a decrease of the S & P in the region of 1260-1270 in the short term.
Some experts, however, a passage above 1370 would be a buying opportunity.
"I'm kind of on the sidelines waiting to see it, but I'm down from there if it snaps," said Stephen Massocca, at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.
The percentage of companies that have published better than expected quarterly results is 64%, according to Thomson Reuters data, 404 companies have already published their accounts . This percentage has certainly improved since the beginning of the period of publication of accounts, but it is lower than 70% the last four quarters.
Among the major retailers will announce their quarterly profits this week include Wal-Mart and Home Depot.
Apart from the results and the Greek case, which should find a solution Monday, few indicators will be published this week: home sales new and old, consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan and registrations Weekly jobless.
To be continued as the general assembly of Apple Thursday and accounts of the first fiscal quarter of Hewkett-Packard on Wednesday.
The CBOE volatility index, also called fear index, fell 7.5% Friday, to 17.78. It is below the level of 25 for over two months, suggesting that investors are less worried about stock market prospects.
The price of a liter of unleaded 95 euro climbed to 1.5640, while that of 98 unleaded rose to 1.6022 euro. This surge is due to tensions in Iran and the decline of the euro.
The price of gasoline at the pump hit new highs Friday in France, according to data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Sustainable Development, those of diesel playing in contrast to the decline. The price of a liter of unleaded 95 euro climbed to 1.5640, while that of unleaded 98 (whose sales are much lower in SP95) rose to 1.6022 euro, surpassing both levels records they had met in January, according to figures compiled by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (EDCM).
However, diesel is still trending down, to 1.3960 euro per liter last week against a peak of 1.4240 in mid-January, and well below its spring 2008 record (1.4541 euro ). These are national averages calculated by the DGEC from data provided by service stations.
This surge is linked to two phenomena, geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nigeria …) that keep crude oil prices at very high levels, and weakening of the euro against the dollar, which increases the cost of black gold imported into France, once its price converted into the single currency. Diesel sales represent about 80% of French consumption of motor fuels, the unleaded 95 just under 15% and unleaded approximately 98% 5.
Prime Minister Lucas Papademos called on Sunday for three party leaders Greek government to publicly commit to implement the reforms demanded by the country's creditors in return for a second help.
The three party leaders were summoned Greek government on Sunday by Lucas Papademos to overcome their objections to the new austerity measures demanded by creditors, even if they have so far resulted only exacerbate the recession of countries.
George Papandreou, Antonis Samaras and George Karatzaferis – respectively leaders of the Socialist party, New Democracy (right) and Laos (far right) represented in the Greek coalition government – arrived mid-afternoon Maximos the palace, where the offices of the Prime Minister.
The representatives of the troika of institutional creditors of the country (euro area, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) have previously met the Prime Minister, Finance Minister and the Minister of Labour. The Greek government has been negotiating for weeks on the establishment of a structural adjustment program of the country in exchange for a second loan of at least 130 billion euros, which would add to that 110 billion awarded in May 2010 the country to protect it from bankruptcy.
100 billion euros of debt
Negotiations described as "superhuman" Sunday by a senior government official, intended to prevent Greece a default in the month of March. An alternative trading-just as crucial-government with its private creditors to erase 100 billion euros of debt, depends on negotiating with creditors. Among the hard spots, rejected both by the Greek trade union leaders by most politicians, are the demands of the troika of generalized lowering labor costs.
"I come with the hope that I will not repeat what was said recently the former German Chancellor (Helmut) Schmidt," said George Karatzaferis to the press on arrival at the Prime Minister, after warning that it did not feel ready to bow to pressure from Berlin or "blackmail". In December, Helmut Schmidt had expressed concern about how other countries dealt Berlin and European partners in managing the debt crisis, when Germany imposes its solutions to its neighbors.
Saturday night, the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said the negotiations "on the razor's edge" were to conclude Sunday evening that Greece avoided a default in March
Risk of bankruptcy in March
The leader of the Eurogroup, Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker, has also lobbied on Saturday night by evoking the risk of "bankruptcy" of Greece in March if the reforms demanded were not completed.
"If we were to find that everything goes awry in Greece, then there would be no new program" refinancing of the country, said the head of government of Luxembourg. "This would mean bankruptcy in March," he added. "Greece must know that we will not back down on the issue of privatization," he said, regretting that there is no other "elements of corruption at all levels of government" Greek.
The opponents argue that wage cuts will exacerbate the recession in Greece, where the economy is stifled by a recession that puts on airs of depression, with GDP expected to fall by around 6% in 2011 after two years of austerity.
According to a government study released last week, the unit labor costs in Greece has already fallen by 14.3% between the first quarter 2010 and third quarter 2011.
But according to the head of IMF mission in Greece Poul Thomsen, measures of wage compression in the private sector will boost the economy through a gain in competitiveness. Paul Thomsen has advocated such a reduction in the minimum wage, a red rag to the unions, saying only 751 euros gross per month was 35% higher than in Portugal, and 20% in Spain.
The Industry Minister, Eric Besson, promised that the potential beneficiaries of social tariffs for electricity consumption of course apply from 1 January even if the measure of automatic access is still not back in force.
While consumption in électricté soaring these days, the automatic assignment of social tariffs for electricity is still conspicuously absent. Yet the measure was to take effect January 1. This had been announced in the fall of Eric Besson, Minister of Energy. Faced with this bug, it has reiterated on Friday that the device, once it enters into force, will be properly applied "to the gas bills and electricity consumption corresponding to January 1, 2012." In other words retroactively.
This delay, which is expected to continue for several more weeks, is due to the fact that the "last formal consultations" between government and industry should always be held together with a notice of the State Council, said the Ministry of energy, confirming the information of Paris …
These special rates are reserved for beneficiaries of the Universal Health Coverage (CMU) or any person whose monthly income is less than 634 euros per month (for a single person). Entered into force in 2005 for electricity and gas in 2008, social tariffs were previously allocated upon application to rights-holders (the limit is 7800 euros in annual revenue to about a single person and 11,700 for childless couple, ed), but by lack of information or administrative complexity, many do not demand.
Only 600,000 households currently receive social tariffs so that 1.5 to 2 million are eligible, a situation that had prompted the government to promise its automation. The reduction is estimated by EDF and GDF Suez at about 90 euros per year for electricity and 140 euros for gas.
"The decree is under consideration by the Council of State, he should be able to give its opinion in the coming weeks, when he will have the last formal consultations that are normally involved in early (February editor's note) . The decree will be published in the coming days, "the ministry said.
In connection communication, the President of the Syndicat Intercommunal the outskirts of Paris for the Electricity and Communication Networks (Sipperec) Catherine Peyge said there was "urgent." Some 3.8 million households, or 14.4% of French households in the metropolis, are currently considered in fuel poverty, meaning they spend more than 10% of their budget on their energy bills, says she said. "What do public authorities to publish the decree and to end the anomaly whereby a tariff, decided in 2000, implemented in 2005, still can not protect the families who need? Meanwhile the prices of electricity rose by 6% in two years, and the bill could jump by 30% by 2016 ", criticized Ms. Peyge.
The Industry Minister Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite requests from EDF and GDF Suez.
The Minister of Industry and Energy Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite the attacks to justice and GDF Suez of other gas suppliers. Asked about RMC and BFM TV about the continued freeze gas prices to presidential, Mr Besson said: "Yes. The Prime Minister made this decision and he made it clear to the national representation . (…) In any case for individuals. "
"We have a simple thesis is that the increases should be extremely limited so as not to influence the purchasing power," he noted, without being able to specify whether this also applied to the gel subscription. For electricity, Mr. Besson is back in a statement to AFP on the remarks made earlier on the air. "It will increase slightly, probably," he said on BFM TV and RMC. "I do not know (when) we will discuss this with EDF."
Asked by AFP, the Office of the Minister of Energy said: "Eric Besson reaffirms that in accordance with the arbitration of the Prime Minister, electricity rates applicable to individuals are frozen until 1 July 2012, and no decision is expected to increase. "
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi said that the primary purpose of the institution is price stability. He refuses to do more to assist States in the euro area, noting that the "credibility" of the ECB is at stake The Governor of the Bank of Italy, Mario Draghi, should succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi Friday defended the independence of the institution subject to strong pressure to intervene financially better deal with the debt crisis, stressing that it was his "credibility" was at stake . "Our credibility implies the success of our monetary policy (consisting of) anchor the inflation outlook in the medium and long term (…) to sustain growth, job creation and financial stability.
To believe an important elected PASOK in power, Prime Minister George Papandreou resigned after agreement on a transitional government will be concluded in Greece, possibly as early as Sunday evening.
Objectives, duration and the choice of the directing personality similar government must be acquired before the start of the power of the current prime minister, said on national television MP Telemachos Hitiris.
"Just wait for the announcement of the (selection) Prime Minister in the cabinet. Everything must be done in the day, otherwise it will be hell tomorrow," he warned.
Heineken, the world's third largest brewer, reported Wednesday a surprise increase in the volume of beer sold and its sales in the third quarter, supported by the strength of African markets and a rebound in sales in Russia.
Revenues rose 0.6% to 4.65 billion euros against 4.51 billion euros expected on average by eight brokers polled by Reuters.
In August, the brewer warned that weak consumer confidence, combined with a sluggish summer, would affect earnings growth this year.He also maintained its forecast for net profit before exceptional items for 2011, saying it would be roughly consistent with the previous year.
In the third quarter, net income amounted to 525 million euros, an amount virtually unchanged from last year.
The title gained 1.24% to 0800 GMT, having reached in early trade a high of two months with an increase of 4.1%.
The Greek Parliament approved on Thursday its new austerity plan. It provides for the establishment layoffs of 30,000 employees. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou at the EU summit of June 23, 2011.
The Greek parliament adopted Thursday night by items, with the only voice of the majority Socialist, the new law austerity contested by the opposition and on the street by the unions. The Prime Minister, George Papandreou, welcomed the vote in a letter read by the Speaker of Parliament, and announced the deregistration of one Socialist MP and former Labour Minister Louka Katseli, which marked its difference by voting every items except 37, the freezing collevtives sectoral conventions.
At the request of the opposition, a registered ballot was held about twenty articles of the law's most controversial, or in addition to Article 37, those providing for new wage cuts and layoffs in the placement of some 30,000 people in the public sector. All members of the opposition present, 144 out of 146 voted against the second day of a general strike against these measures by the unions, and massive anti-austerity rallies interspersed with incidents.
The rest of the articles was adopted by a simplified procedure following the roll call vote, while the law had already adopted "in principle" on Wednesday night. A new formal vote "throughout the text" has been postponed to a later meeting, said the Chairman. The Ministry of Finance said earlier that it was only a formality.
The adoption of this law, required by the creditors of the country, European Union and International Monetary Fund fell "national responsibility", so that the country "avoid bankruptcy" by receiving a new tranche of international loans, said M . Papandreou. He also found that the country gained in strength and to negotiate in the EU and the euro area for a resolution of the problem of its indebtedness.
European leaders are putting added pressure on banks to force them to recapitalize and enable them to withstand greater losses than expected on the sovereign debt of the most fragile countries in the euro area.
While being held in Paris the meeting of G20 Finance Friday and Saturday, the market hopes to see political leaders overcome their differences to meet a debt crisis that threatens the stability of the euro area and the strength of the European banking system.
"For now, investors give them the benefit of the doubt," said Patrick Moonen, strategist at ING Investment Management, in a note entitled "Good luck to political leaders."
Pending the outcome of the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the G20, the surveillance by Fitch notes several banks – including Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank or Societe Generale – show the difficulties faced by banks today.Difficulties that have driven the last weekend the French-Belgian Dexia decommissioning.
In exchange, the banks Friday was the only sector to finish down in Europe (-0.59%).
The President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated Friday that several European banks needed to be recapitalized.
The crucial step remains the European Council of 23 October at which Germany and France will unveil their proposals for overcoming the crisis. Both countries said they already sealed their agreements without specifying its content.
"We have never been so close to a solution (to the debt crisis, Ed). But this is not done," warns David Thebault, head of quantitative trading at Global Equities."There is concern that the market takes it badly if there is no announcement of precise and detailed plan on October 23 and November 3 (G20 Cannes, Ed).I remain cautious. "
The Franco-German proposals will include a bank recapitalization and strengthening the response capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).
SIX MONTHS to recapitalize
In preparation for the European Council, the European Banking Authority (EBA) provides a new set of stress tests of the banking sector.
Stricter than the previous year this time should include a valuation of sovereign debt, particularly that of Greece, at market value, and the EBA should require banks a minimum capital ratio "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% and not only by 7%.
According to European sources, the weakest banks will then have six months to build up their capital.
"The only real justification for recapitalization would be to reassure the markets," said Laurent Quignon, head of economics at BNP Paribas bank.
"But in terms of economic fundamentals, there is no more reason than all the banks are recapitalized today than yesterday."
According to Goldman Sachs, at least 50 out of 91 European banks could fail the new stress tests, indicating a need for 139 billion euros in fresh capital.
The terms of a bank recapitalization on the Old Continent will be the subject of intense negotiations from Monday, said President of the Eurogroup.
"LESS DIVIDENDS, BONUS UNDER"
The French government has already said that the State was ready to help banks, but for now it emphasizes the strengthening of capital by private capital, unlike what was done in 2008 and 2009 under the plan to help French banks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"Banks will have to recapitalize on the basis of their results by distributing less dividends and less bonus," said Friday morning the Minister of Economy Baroin, Europe 1.
"If they can not, they will do in the markets.If markets are not sufficient, they will find partners and, ultimately limit, there will be an opportunity for European coordination. "
"For France, I want to say that I am confident in the ability of our banks to raise their profits and all means at their disposal to strengthen their capital base," added the Prime Minister Francois Fillon, in the afternoon during the parliamentary days of the UMP.
In line with the German position, France has already ruled out recourse to EFSF to recapitalize its banks.
"Policies must resolve the dilemma between the private shareholders of banks that do not want to hear about dilution and the market which requires recapitalization," said Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue.
"The calls for recapitalization by the European authorities can be cons-productive to the extent that they contribute to fuel concern for all banks," warns Laurent Quignon, at BNP Paribas. "What can paradoxically make raising capital more difficult for institutions that need it."
Deutsche Bank, which would need to raise 9 billion euros according to sources, has made it clear that it would avoid any forced recapitalization.
