Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. equity markets have confounded the pessimists, and employment figures of February in the U.S., expected in late week, could well justify a continued rise.
The 'rally' stock in recent months has been built on a series of economic indicators improving, which suggest that growth in U.S. corporate earnings remain intact, analysts said.
But some strategists warn against a downward trend, while the main New York indexes have reached key thresholds and that the publication of results for the fourth quarter draws to a close.
The Standard & Poor's 500 rose in eight of nine weeks past. During the past week, the Dow finished above 13,000 points for the first time since May 2008, and the S & P 500 closed twice over resistance threshold of 1,370 points.
The Nasdaq composite crossed the threshold of its side of the 3,000 points and is trading around its highest level since 2000.
Some believe that Wall Street could continue to rise thanks to new macroeconomic indicators considered solid.
"The question is: 'Are we witnessing a sustained improvement in the economy?' I think the answer is yes, and that the rally will continue somewhat, "says Bryant Evans, portfolio manager and advisor for Cozad Asset Management, Illinois.
Detailed figures for February employment in the United States must be published Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect 210,000 new jobs outside agriculture, against 243,000 the previous month.
This would mark the third consecutive month of job creation. The unemployment rate is meanwhile expected unchanged at 8.3%, its lowest level in three years. To investors, such figures would bring additional proof of a recovery in the U.S. economy.
Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. has already been revised up to 3.0% annualized in the fourth quarter of 2011, its highest rate , since the second quarter 2010, according to the second estimate published Wednesday by the Commerce Department.
TAKING PROFITS tempting
Now that the second bailout of Greece seems on track and that the earnings season draws to a close, investors are more focused on macroeconomic data.
Rising oil prices, bolstered by the tensions around Iran, however, could darken the horizon. Brent crude is trading above $ 120, an ominous trend when Europe seems to be sliding into recession.
Also in Europe, the first funds of the new aid package to Greece could be paid immediately after the debt swap between Athens and its private creditors s, to be concluded by 9 March.
In any event, investors had gains high enough since the beginning of the year to consider taking profits.
The S & P 500, who finished almost unchanged in 2011, increased by 9% since the beginning of the year.
U.S. ECONOMY, THE ENGINE RALLY
Health of the U.S. economy now looks up the engine for stock markets, investors wanting to believe that a recovering economy will spur creation of jobs and profits up.
Regarding the fourth quarter, the share of companies exceeding expectations is declining.
A 9.4% quarterly earnings growth is also lower than in previous quarters, but analysts want to believe that the recovery of the U.S. economy will help to avoid settling too brutal.
"From our perspective, as the employment situation continues to improve, we are on track," said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager at Austin.
Monday, the ISM services will provide an overview of the activity of tertiary service last month.
The ADP survey on job creation in the private sector in the United States, released Wednesday, will precede the official statistics on Friday.
Dexia Credit Local, Dexia's French subsidiary, said Friday it has launched a takeover offer for 700 million euros of subordinated notes issued in November 2005.
The bank stress due to the dismantling of the debt crisis in the euro area, said in a statement that this operation is intended to strengthen the equity "hard" and Dexia its French subsidiary.
"The net result of the sale and implementation of the tender offer will be neutral in terms of liquidity and result in improved equity and hard of Dexia Credit Local ( DCL), "says the bank.
Dexia had said late last year want to recapitalize its subsidiary DCL 4.2 billion, including € 2.5 billion through the conversion of subordinated loans s.
PagesJaunes announced Wednesday that its board would propose as an exceptional pass the dividend for 2011, after registering a decline in its revenues and profit margins last year.
Heavily in debt, the publisher of printed directories and online, the site owner geolocation Mappy, saw its net cash flow to fall by over 20% last year, penalized by including the rising cost of its debt.
The full year 2011, its turnover stood at 1.1 billion euros, in line with market expectations according to Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S, This represents a decrease of 2.1% over the previous year.
Its gross operating margin (GOM) totaled 493.1 million euros, down 4.8%.
The group said it expects for 2011 a decline of about 2% of its turnover and a GOM between 485 and 500 million euros, an objective that was lowered in July to reflect impact on its business of social movements before the summer.
For 2012, the group says aimed to stabilize its revenue after two years of decline, thanks to the growth of its business on the internet which should represent 60% of its total turnover.
It also anticipates a GOM between 470 and 485 million euros.
Democrats and Republicans are unable to agree on a plan to reduce U.S. debt, which has just reached 15,000 billion. The reasons and consequences of this blockage. The President of the United States Barack Obama
The debt crisis in Europe has almost been forgotten that the U.S. also face their great difficulties on their debt. European stock markets closed sharply lower on Thursday. Paris (-3.4%, below 2900 points), Frankfurt (-3.5%) and London (-2.6%) fell sharply in the wake of Wall Street lost more than 2% at the end of the afternoon. Democrats and Republicans should agree on a plan to save 1,200 billion over ten years to hold their huge debt. But after two months of negotiations, they were still far from an agreement a few hours from the end of negotiations scheduled for Monday evening.
Congress had in effect established a commission to decide on a plan to reduce debt. Composed of twelve members of Congress – six Republicans and six Democrats – the "super-committee" was intended to relieve an abysmal debt that comes to exceed 15,000 billion (you can see it evolve in real time on the www . usdebtclock.org). The six Democrats proposed a plan for 2900 includes 1,300 billion billion tax increase, the six Republicans on the other hand opted for a plan of 2,200 billion euros, with "only" 200 billion of tax increases. Without ever reaching a consensus.
Why the lock?
This blockage occurs less than a year of presidential elections scheduled for November 2012.
Former European Commissioner Mario Monti was the favorite Thursday to succeed Silvio Berlusconi as head of the Italian government and try to counter the surge in borrowing costs in the country, another who briefly relieved the European stock exchanges.
The Economist, 68, former European Commissioner and now president of Bocconi University in Milan, is seen for weeks by the markets as the best candidate to lead a government of national unity and implementation of emergency austerity measures needed to redress the accounts of the country.The Paris Bourse was almost in equilibrium, Frankfurt advanced 0.5% and London gave up 0.45%.
Discussions in the PDL
Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has appointed Mario Monti senator for life Wednesday. Investors saw this as a sign that he would ask him to try to form a government from the start of Silvio Berlusconi, expected in the coming days.
And as the cost of borrowing to ten years in Italy continue to grow beyond 7%, a level deemed unsustainable by many, the assumption of a unity government seems to be gaining ground in the PDL.
"The LDP can not simply follow the call to the polls that emanates from the core," said Foreign Minister Franco Frattini in an interview with Corriere della Sera.
Suzuki Motor reported Monday a 6.2% increase in quarterly operating profit despite the impact on its sales of social movements in India, the first Japanese car market, which has maintained its forecast for the entire the 2011-2012 fiscal year.
The group's operating income for the period July-September second quarter of this year stood at 39.2 billion yen (365 million euros), while analysts had on average expected 25.6 billion yen.
Net income for Suzuki, owned 19.9% by Volkswagen as part of a partnership that turned sour, fell 13% to 13.3 billion yen while revenue declined by 6 , 6% to 618.8 billion.
Unemployment in Spain jumped to 21.5% in the third quarter, against 20.9% for the period April to June, show figures released Friday by the National Institute of Statistics.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the unemployment rate in the fourth largest economy in the euro area, the highest in the European Union, remains unchanged from the second quarter.
Societe Generale said Thursday in an email to the press that the goal of equity of 9% at end-June 2012 without resorting to the market, after testing by the European Banking Authority (EBA ).
Earlier in the morning, the French bank whose needs additional capital was estimated at 3.3 billion euros, said it will recapitalize on its own without explicitly rule out an increase of capital.
For avoidance of doubt, SocGen said that it does not seek public money or raise capital in financial markets.
Under the agreement reached on the night of Wednesday to Thursday at the conclusion of a new double top, the European authorities have agreed to recapitalize their banks to the tune of 106 billion euros, 8.8 billion for French banks.
BNP Paribas, whose capital needs were assessed by the EBA to 2.1 billion euros, also rejected any appeal to the market.
The U.S. economy continued to grow at a slow pace in September, but prospects appear dim, believes the Federal Reserve in its "beige book" on Wednesday.
"The economy as a whole has continued to grow in September, although many districts described the pace of growth as" modest "or" low "and contacts have generally found a weakening outlook," says the Fed This situation report.
Wall Street and oil prices went up in free fall as a result of this paper while the price of Treasuries rose.
The memo on the economy the Fed is based on data collected before October 7 and deals with all the economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts, which cover the entire United States.
According to the Beige Book, consumer spending rose slightly in most districts, thanks to the automotive industry and tourism.
There was also an increase in business investment, particularly in construction and mining.
While a number of districts have experienced some recovery in construction activity, "the general conditions of real estate – residential as commercial – are still depressed."
Also according to the survey, several districts noted that many retailers are reluctant to build up stocks despite the approach of the holiday season, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence.
This holiday season – which runs from Thanksgiving to Christmas – is at least half the annual turnover of many stores.
Interviewed on CNBC, the president of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengren said the Fed may have to increase support measures if the U.S. economy weakened further or if it was affected by a new shock.
Starts of new homes in France in late August were up 17.4% year on year to 389,449 units, but only 7.4% over the last three months, to 83,153, show statistics released Tuesday by the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation and Housing.
The number of building permits issued for housing shows a parallel increase of 10.5% over the last 12 months to 490,620 and an increase of 10.6% over June to August, to 133,169.
"Over the past twelve months, new construction, representing over 87% of homes, rose 9.8% over the previous twelve months," the ministry said in a statement.
In the non-residential housing starts were up 7.3% over the past year to 25.35 million square meters, and 26.2% for the three months to 6.18 million m2.
Building permits granted for industrial or commercial premises are up 7.2% over the last 12 months to 36.22 million m2, and 2.8% over three months to 8.95 million m2.
