China's trade surplus declined in September for the second consecutive month, reflecting the weakness of the global economy and the slowdown in China itself.
Import growth as exports slowed last month.The accentuation of the debt crisis in Europe and the slower growth in the U.S. explain this trend, which could enhance the Chinese authorities in the conflict on the level of the yuan.
"The rising exchange rate of the renminbi could limit the margin of export growth", has also speedily regretted Lu Peijun, deputy director of China Customs, at a press conference.
"China still faced inflationary pressure imported relatively strong and the terms of trade deteriorate as well," he added.
Exports grew by 17.1% last month compared to September 2010, after a growth rate of 24.5% the previous month, according to data released Thursday by the Office of Customs.
At the same time, imports increased by 20.9% yoy against 30.2% in August.
The surplus in the trade balance of China and stood at $ 14.5 billion in September, against 16.3 billion average expected by economists and after 17.8 billion in August.This represents less than half of the surplus in July, which amounted to 31.5 billion.
Year over year, the trade surplus appears to 180.3 billion dollars.
"Export growth in September was much lower than the expectations of the markets, reflecting the global economy coughs, and we expect this trend to slowing exports will continue in the coming months" , Analysis Wang Hu, of Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.
"The narrowing trade surplus and a slowdown in imported inflation could ease the pressure on Beijing to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan," said Du Zhengzheng for its part, an analyst with China Development Bank Securities.
Economists, relayed by western politicians, believe that the Chinese currency is undervalued, giving an advantage to the products 'made in China' on the international markets.
In Washington, the Senate passed a bill Tuesday that could force Beijing to raise the price of its currency under penalty of imports of Chinese goods taxed. China denounces protectionism in disguise and an obstacle to world trade rules. (See)
The trade surplus of China vis-à-vis the United States, however, remained unchanged from August to September, 20 billion.
Vis-à-vis the European Union, it decreased to $ 12.9 billion against 14.8 billion in August.
The euro was steady against the dollar Thursday morning before a possible decline in interest rates that could decide the European Central Bank during the last monetary policy meeting by its President Jean-Claude Trichet.
The euro, which rated approximately 1.3350 dollars, is notably supported after the commitment by Germany Wednesday to help its banks if necessary.
Be announced by the ECB at 24:45 GMT at the end of the meeting of its board of governors for the last time led by Jean-Claude Trichet? The issue is discussed.
The market economists expect a simple majority in monetary status quo – the main rate by the ECB would remain at 1.5%.But the voices of a growing number were heard to ask for a lower cost of money while the signs are increasing of a faltering economic recovery and as the financial crisis – bonds and bank – escalates .
However, inflation continued to rise in September in the euro area. It reached 3.0% annual rate, its highest level in nearly three years, against 2.5% in August, is already well above the objective of the ECB. However, the essential mission of the Central Bank of 17 countries in the euro area is to maintain prices at a level slightly below 2%.
If the ECB does not reduce the cost of credit, it could announce other support measures.Among the measures expected by the market, increased liquidity, recovery of tenders 12 months used for the last time in late 2009, handed to the current tastes of the program to purchase bonds (covered bonds).
According to a Reuters poll conducted last week, 56 of 75 economists said to anticipate a continuation of interest rates, but 13 anticipate a decline of 25 basis points in September and even predict a reduction of 50 points.
For example, JP Morgan Chase is expected to drop 50 points in the cost of money.
The single currency has lost about 10% against the greenback since its peak of 1.4550 dollars in late August, but is above the low point of his nine-month dollar hit 1.3145 this week.
Carmignac Gestion WANTS THE RATES TO ZERO
After raising rates twice this year in April and July, the ECB changed its stance at its September meeting and opened the door to future cuts.
She said that the risks to inflation were no longer on the upside but were "broadly balanced".
Since then, inflation was announced at 3%, but the signs of a slowdown have been confirmed.The U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs and others now provide even a "mild recession" for the eurozone in the fourth quarter.
Economist Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Tom Rogers believes that the ECB will reduce its rate to less than 1% if the economy falls into recession.
In a full page advertisement in the Financial Times on Wednesday, the French manager Carmignac Gestion, with assets under management amounted to 55 billion euros, asked Jean-Claude Trichet to go further and to reduce rates to zero.
"Goodbye, we do not regret it!" We read in the box presented in the form of a letter to the President of the ECB."This is your last chance to leave on a positive note."
According to many economists, it would be the next President of the ECB, Italian, Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Trichet decides to lower the house money before taking office.
They feel that if Mario Draghi had to take such action in its first monetary policy meeting in November, it might then be portrayed as a supporter of lower rates.
This would imply, however, that Jean-Claude Trichet left as the last measure of his eight-year term rate cuts in a context of high inflation: such a decision contrary to fundamental principles of the ECB, would be enough to ruffle the supporters of the 'budgetary orthodoxy.
Some as Carmignac criticized the ECB for not doing enough to fight against debt crisis in the euro area, but others, like the Bundesbank, the ECB's view that has already gone beyond its limits and it puts independence at risk.
The euro area may therefore have to await further signs of a slowdown, or a decline in inflation, to get a breath of fresh air in the form of lower rates.
Creditors will return from Athens in the country next week for the débloclage loan of 8 billion euros, which would avoid the default. Visitors are Seen in front of the Temple of Poseidon at Cape Sounio, south of Athens, August 6, 2009. Many archaeological sites Throughout The country stayed open till the early hours DURING the August full moon night. (GREECE CITYSCAPE SOCIETY TRAVEL IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Heads of Mission of the troika of creditors will return to Athens, Greece "in early next week" to complete talks for the release of the next tranche of loans to the country, said Tuesday the Department of Finance at the end a teleconference between representatives and the Minister.This conference gave rise "to a satisfactory progress" in negotiations, said a ministry statement, stating that the minister, Evangelos Venizelos, will also continue its discussions with donors in the country "this weekend in Washington at the annual meeting of the IMF. "
These negotiations are intended to avoid a default on Greece in need of loan from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund to cover its financing needs from the end of October. In Brussels, the European Commission made from advanced, indicating that negotiations were possible to find common ground and confirming the return of the troika. During the conference, following a first round Monday, "Good progress has been made," the Commission ruled in a statement.Technical discussions will continue over the next few days in Athens, she added, as also the statement of the Greek Ministry.
Of these negotiations depends on the payment in October – vital for Greece – the sixth round of eight billion euros of the loan in May 2010 in the euro area country and the IMF. A source of the Greek Ministry of Finance, negotiations Tuesday were to endorse the measures agreed between Greece and its creditors to achieve the planned budget savings and accelerate structural reforms that Athens has promised to perform in exchange for his rescue bankruptcy.
The European Commission has not confirmed this information and did not provide details in a statement. The department has for its part not mentioned in either agreement.A cabinet was nevertheless restricted announced Wednesday morning that the Greek media are waiting for a green light to launch the measures agreed with creditors, centered on the compression of the public sector.
The Italian Minister of Economy, Giulio Tremonti, reiterated Saturday its call for the creation of Eurobonds, saying they were the best way out of the euro zone debt crisis is likely, he said, to win other countries.
Tremonti was speaking after the adoption by Italy of a government austerity plan for achieving 45.5 billion euros in savings by reducing spending and raising taxes.
"An increased level of integration and consolidation of public finances in Europe is needed," Tremonti said during a press conference to explain the Italian austerity plan.
"The best solution would be to have Eurobonds and options could be adopted," he added.
Oil prices had closed up Wednesday issued after the announcement that the United States had reduced their inventories last week.
The September contract on Brent crude has ended up 4.0%, or 4.11 dollars to 106.68 dollars.
Previously on the Nymex, the contract on September U.S. crude (WTI) had ended with a gain of 3.59 dollars, or 4.53% to 82.89 dollars a barrel.
The giant U.S. food Kraft Foods announced Thursday it plans to split into two separate companies, while posting better than expected results and raising its forecast for 2011.
Eighteen months after buying the British chocolate maker Cadbury controversial, Kraft plans to split its North American grocery through a split tax-free by the end of 2012.
Kraft now considers that its activities and snacks division North American grocery now have strategic priorities, patterns of growth and operating objectives that differ.
Investors can therefore choose between the strong growth prospects of the market for snacks in emerging economies, or build on the security offered by the grocery business.
The draft terms of division received two support weight, those investors Pelte Nelson and Warren Buffet, the latter being the largest shareholder of Kraft.
The group issued a profit along better than expected at 62 cents per share, a Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S to 58 cents a share, with net sales up 13.3% to 13.9 billion.
The group raised its forecast for annual EPS at least $ 2.25 and organic growth of its turnover to at least 5%.He was formerly an annual EPS of at least $ 2.20 and organic growth of at least 4%.
All these ads allowed under Kraft jump of almost 3% at the New York Stock Exchange in the morning.
An appeals court in Milan on Saturday condemned the Fininvest group of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to 560 million euro fine for damages to the CIR group, it was learned from legal sources.
Fininvest had taken control of the publishing group of Arnoldo Mondadori Editore in early 1990 at the expense of the CIR group with a court order. The judge responsible for this decision was later convicted of corruption.
In 2009, a Milan court sentenced him at trial Fininvest to pay 749.9 million euros in damages to the CIR but Fininvest group had appealed the decision. The group of Silvio Berlusconi would also appeal the decision on appeal.
The two rivals of the French retailers Carrefour and Casino have crossed swords on Monday a merger of their subsidiaries in Brazil, an operation taken by the Brazilian National Bank for Development (BNDES) but the group Etienne does not hear .
While Carrefour has announced that its Board of Directors supported the proposed merger, Casino has in turn denounced the offensive of its rival.
"The group Carrefour and Casino believes that its directors shall assume responsibility for accepting, despite the warnings, an operation engaged in a hostile and conducted as part of negotiations illegal," said Casino in a statement.
Casino is a shareholder of Grupo Pao de Acucar (GPA) up to 43.1% of the shares and exercise operational control on par with the billionaire Abilio Diniz – Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Brazilian distributor – in the Wilkes holding .
"Carrefour deliberately fails to specify that the agreement of Wilkes, and thus the casino is required," said Casino sees a dim view of a transaction after which it would be a minority in an entity controlled by rival Carrefour.
For Carrefour, the project would create a "major player in the distribution in Brazil" with a combined turnover exceeding 30 billion euros.
"In case of completion of the transaction, Carrefour significantly increase its exposure to growth markets, which account for more than 40% of its consolidated sales by 2013," said the dealer also said that a merger would generate 600 to 800 million euros in synergies.
The desire to Abilio Diniz GPA merge with a subsidiary of Carrefour comes as Casino has the opportunity to be sole master on board from June 2012 through the exercise of an option in the holding Wilkes.
The group led by Jean-Charles Naouri Abilio Diniz accuses of having entered into negotiations with Carrefour without consultation, an approach that considers illegal casino.
BATTLE OF LONG-TERM
With probable litigation in key financial markets are preparing for a battle of long duration, which doubles as an important political dimension, the Brazilian authorities did not hide their ambition to create a national champion of the distribution.
But since the first reports of Brazilian officials for the merger, the caution came back and the president of BNDES, Luciano Coutinho has said in the press this weekend, no operation would be without the casino.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Jean-Charles Naouri, CEO of Casino, went to Brazil to meet with officials from BNDES.
"Given the position taken by the BNDES this weekend's announcement by the Board of Directors of Carrefour is surprising," said an analyst in a note to CM CIC.
"But could he remain silent any longer?" Asks Christian for whom Devismes Carrefour's image could suffer a possible failure of this operation.
Other analysts questioned the likelihood that Carrefour has to force a merger, while Casino seems to have the cards to dismiss her rival.
"We are perhaps naive and we are not lawyers but having read the shareholders' agreement between Diniz and Casino again and again reminds us that no agreement is possible" without the support of Casino, consider analysts at the bank RBS.
Carrefour, weakened by three successive warnings about its results since the fall, remains under pressure from the markets and should include correct its hypermarkets in France and find growth opportunities abroad.
Strong growth, Brazil is a strategic market for the two French groups. Carrefour second market after France with 12.3% of total group sales, it accounts for about one third of 11.12 billion euros in sales of Casino International.
Al Jazeera, which has just won the rights to broadcast games in Ligue 1 soccer, will launch in the coming months a new French-language channel dedicated exclusively to the sport, announced Thursday Nasser al-Khelaifi, the chairman of Al Jazeera Sport .
The group, headquartered in Doha, Qatar, has emerged as the surprise guest of the 2012-2016 competition for the rights of the French league football, winning one of six major prizes at stake, after already obtained the rights last month of the competition for international.
By becoming the official broadcaster of the Ligue 1 alongside the historic partner Canal +, it reinforces the presence of this small Gulf state within the French football after the takeover last month, the Paris Saint-Germain by the fund Investment Qatar Sports Investments (QSI).
Nasser al-Khelaifi, who is also the president of QSI, however, refuted any idea of taking control set.
"It was never intended to buy everything at the same time," he told a news conference less than an hour after the presentation by the Professional Football League (LFP) of the results of his appeal offers.
"We just seized the opportunities presented themselves," he added, noting that discussions on the PSG had been ongoing for over a year while the channel project was "very very new."
NO WAR AGAINST CANAL +
Remains to be seen what will be the assembly finally chosen for the launch of the chain and in particular delivery method.
Monday, a spokesman for France Telecom told Reuters that Al Jazeera had shown interest in Orange Sport, one of the pay TV operator Telecom.
The chairman of Al Jazeera Sport has not ruled out that possibility but said to look at other options.
A partnership with CFoot, the channel plans to launch the LFP on the DTT is also part of the scenarios mentioned. French regulations, however, provides that a foreign group in theory can not control more than 20% of a broadcast radio channel.
Nasser al-Khelaifi also indicated that he intended to meet in the coming days all the operators may distribute the channel.
The group has already recruited the journalist Charles Bietry, which should leave the TV team."I drove the file and I will lead the chain," said the latter to reporters after the press conference.
Charles Bietry sought to reassure the intentions of Al Jazeera in France after the questions raised by politicians, including Minister for Sport Chantal Jouanno.
"We do not want to appear as conquistadors (…) from upsetting the whole market," he said, adding that Qatar's bid group was not in any way "a declaration of war" on Canal +.
Al Jazeera, whose leaders have welcomed the LFP originality of the offer, should disseminate its future chain of Ligue 1 matches on Friday nights and Sunday at 14:00.
PROJECT BORN AGAIN
Asked if the group could Qatari candidates for the four lots that have not been allocated by the LFP lack of adequate pricing, Charles Bietry said he could show interest by members of Lots 6 and 9.
The chain should also open its branch in other sports, said the journalist, who claims to have already received several calls from sports federations.
Requested to provide a timetable for the launch of the channel, he said, "between January (2012 Ed) and the beginning of the next championship," while insisting on the very recent project, the decision to bid for Human League have taken one, he said, that two weeks ago.
According to several media outlets, Al Jazeera's decision to participate in the tender is to be submitted in the context of good relations with the emirate of Qatar Paris.
Asked if the contacts had taken place with the Elysee Palace, Nasser al-Khelaifi kicked into touch by saying that he wanted to talk about sports and not politics.
For the first time that the Qatari group is a candidate to purchase rights for a national championship and the chairman of Al Jazeera did not rule to repeat the operation in other countries if the opportunity s 'as presented.
Qatar, which has significant financial resources through its gas and oil fields, is determined to strengthen its visibility and credibility in the game before hosting the World Cup in 2022.
The Paris Bourse, like other European markets, fell in early trading Monday in the wake of the euro, because of renewed concern about the resolution of the crisis of sovereign debt in the eurozone.
Around 9:10, the CAC 40 gave up 1.5% at 3930.85 points, weighed down by the bank.
Credit Agricole (-2.07%), whose rating was lowered by Standard & Poor's "AA-/A-1 +" to "A + / A-1", and BNP Paribas (-2.14%) show the largest declines, while Societe Generale lost 1.79%.
No value of the CAC 40 is in green.
London and Frankfurt lost 1.28% 1.5%.Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 yields 1.53% and 0.97% Eurofirst 300.
The euro continues to fall, hit by the continuing debt crisis in the eurozone, and is trading around 1.4035 dollars against 1.4104 on Friday.
The price of a barrel of U.S. light crude oil fall of 2.32 dollars to 98.22 dollars amid rising U.S. dollar and news of a slowdown in manufacturing activity in China.
