The rapid increase of the debt crisis in the euro area threatens the credit ratings of all European states, warned Sunday the U.S. rating agency Moody's. Moody's in New York.
In a "special comment" on European countries published Sunday, Moody's says it still considers that the euro area will maintain its unity without any fault as that of Greece, but notes that even this' scenario 'positive' carries consequences very negative for the notes "of European countries. The U.S. rating agency, recently warned that France could lose its "triple A" allowing it to borrow at favorable rates in the markets, and clearly indicates that no country, even among those considered most solids, such as the Netherlands, Austria, Finland or Germany, is immune to a lowering of note.
Given the events of recent weeks, Moody's said have to consider "the likelihood of a scenario even more negative." She said "the probability of multiple failures (…) States in the euro area is no longer negligible" and continues to grow in the absence of solution to the crisis. If this probability were to materialize, it would increase the likelihood that one or more countries leave the euro area, the agency said, for whom this scenario of a "fragmentation of the euro" would have "negative repercussions for all countries the euro area and EU. " For Moody's, the situation is constantly evolving, and new "shocks" (new rescue or rising interest rates which states borrow) while policy makers define new measures are "likely to lead to changes of note in case by case "for some countries.
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The Industry Minister Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite requests from EDF and GDF Suez.
The Minister of Industry and Energy Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite the attacks to justice and GDF Suez of other gas suppliers. Asked about RMC and BFM TV about the continued freeze gas prices to presidential, Mr Besson said: "Yes. The Prime Minister made this decision and he made it clear to the national representation . (…) In any case for individuals. "
"We have a simple thesis is that the increases should be extremely limited so as not to influence the purchasing power," he noted, without being able to specify whether this also applied to the gel subscription. For electricity, Mr. Besson is back in a statement to AFP on the remarks made earlier on the air. "It will increase slightly, probably," he said on BFM TV and RMC. "I do not know (when) we will discuss this with EDF."
Asked by AFP, the Office of the Minister of Energy said: "Eric Besson reaffirms that in accordance with the arbitration of the Prime Minister, electricity rates applicable to individuals are frozen until 1 July 2012, and no decision is expected to increase. "
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi said that the primary purpose of the institution is price stability. He refuses to do more to assist States in the euro area, noting that the "credibility" of the ECB is at stake The Governor of the Bank of Italy, Mario Draghi, should succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi Friday defended the independence of the institution subject to strong pressure to intervene financially better deal with the debt crisis, stressing that it was his "credibility" was at stake . "Our credibility implies the success of our monetary policy (consisting of) anchor the inflation outlook in the medium and long term (…) to sustain growth, job creation and financial stability.
Unemployment in Spain jumped to 21.5% in the third quarter, against 20.9% for the period April to June, show figures released Friday by the National Institute of Statistics.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the unemployment rate in the fourth largest economy in the euro area, the highest in the European Union, remains unchanged from the second quarter.
European leaders are putting added pressure on banks to force them to recapitalize and enable them to withstand greater losses than expected on the sovereign debt of the most fragile countries in the euro area.
While being held in Paris the meeting of G20 Finance Friday and Saturday, the market hopes to see political leaders overcome their differences to meet a debt crisis that threatens the stability of the euro area and the strength of the European banking system.
"For now, investors give them the benefit of the doubt," said Patrick Moonen, strategist at ING Investment Management, in a note entitled "Good luck to political leaders."
Pending the outcome of the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the G20, the surveillance by Fitch notes several banks – including Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank or Societe Generale – show the difficulties faced by banks today.Difficulties that have driven the last weekend the French-Belgian Dexia decommissioning.
In exchange, the banks Friday was the only sector to finish down in Europe (-0.59%).
The President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated Friday that several European banks needed to be recapitalized.
The crucial step remains the European Council of 23 October at which Germany and France will unveil their proposals for overcoming the crisis. Both countries said they already sealed their agreements without specifying its content.
"We have never been so close to a solution (to the debt crisis, Ed). But this is not done," warns David Thebault, head of quantitative trading at Global Equities."There is concern that the market takes it badly if there is no announcement of precise and detailed plan on October 23 and November 3 (G20 Cannes, Ed).I remain cautious. "
The Franco-German proposals will include a bank recapitalization and strengthening the response capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).
SIX MONTHS to recapitalize
In preparation for the European Council, the European Banking Authority (EBA) provides a new set of stress tests of the banking sector.
Stricter than the previous year this time should include a valuation of sovereign debt, particularly that of Greece, at market value, and the EBA should require banks a minimum capital ratio "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% and not only by 7%.
According to European sources, the weakest banks will then have six months to build up their capital.
"The only real justification for recapitalization would be to reassure the markets," said Laurent Quignon, head of economics at BNP Paribas bank.
"But in terms of economic fundamentals, there is no more reason than all the banks are recapitalized today than yesterday."
According to Goldman Sachs, at least 50 out of 91 European banks could fail the new stress tests, indicating a need for 139 billion euros in fresh capital.
The terms of a bank recapitalization on the Old Continent will be the subject of intense negotiations from Monday, said President of the Eurogroup.
"LESS DIVIDENDS, BONUS UNDER"
The French government has already said that the State was ready to help banks, but for now it emphasizes the strengthening of capital by private capital, unlike what was done in 2008 and 2009 under the plan to help French banks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"Banks will have to recapitalize on the basis of their results by distributing less dividends and less bonus," said Friday morning the Minister of Economy Baroin, Europe 1.
"If they can not, they will do in the markets.If markets are not sufficient, they will find partners and, ultimately limit, there will be an opportunity for European coordination. "
"For France, I want to say that I am confident in the ability of our banks to raise their profits and all means at their disposal to strengthen their capital base," added the Prime Minister Francois Fillon, in the afternoon during the parliamentary days of the UMP.
In line with the German position, France has already ruled out recourse to EFSF to recapitalize its banks.
"Policies must resolve the dilemma between the private shareholders of banks that do not want to hear about dilution and the market which requires recapitalization," said Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue.
"The calls for recapitalization by the European authorities can be cons-productive to the extent that they contribute to fuel concern for all banks," warns Laurent Quignon, at BNP Paribas. "What can paradoxically make raising capital more difficult for institutions that need it."
Deutsche Bank, which would need to raise 9 billion euros according to sources, has made it clear that it would avoid any forced recapitalization.
Slovakia is the latest member of the eurozone to vote strengthening of the European financial stability. Part of the coalition threatened not to accept the text. If no vote, there is no "plan B" according Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman for the European Commission. Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman of the European Commission for Economic Affairs.
The last step seems to be the most difficult to cross to Europe. Slovakia is the 17th and last country in Europe to vote on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and part of the coalition threatened not to accept the text. Without the approval of Bratislava, the plan can not enter into force in accordance Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman of the European Commission for Economic Affairs. Interview.
Slovakia Can Europe block?
We hope there will be a positive vote in Bratislava.But if Slovakia did not accept the text, the plan will remain outstanding. And if the vote is negative, the plan falls apart. The EFSF will then remain in its current state but will not have the means to ensure the protection of the euro, as it is supposed to do in its new form.
Ratification does not seem won …
We're not there yet. The Slovak authorities have committed heavily to vote the text. Besides the Prime Minister Iveta Radicova has resigned on the table in case of refusal of the plan by the coalition. Our message was to the Slovak authorities to say that strengthening the EFSF is in their interest. It may be very useful to the country if the crisis in the euro area spreads.
Can you put pressure on Slovakia?
What do you want, the Commission took power in Bratislava? We can not force the country to ratify the plan.This is the responsibility of all political actors. We can not require Member States is in the nature of the European Union. States have decided to vote the text unanimously in 2010 against the advice of the Commission. If we had done by a qualified majority, we would not be here.
This is not the first time that Slovakia played bad students …
We have already had a fantastic story with this government. Parliamentary elections in 2010, Prime Minister of the country – currently in power – has campaigned on his opposition to help countries better off than him. Then, the arrival of Iveta Radicova as Prime Minister, the party decided in June to stop its bilateral loans to Greece in the forefront of support. The decision was taken after the second installment.It is now the sixth …
Part of the coalition claims to be exempt from participating in EFSF (7 billion euros 440 billion in total). Can we modify the agreement to allow Slovakia to vote on the plan?
The agreement was ratified by 16 member states before it, we can not change it for a country. What would the other parliaments have already voted if the text were changed to the Treaty? They could also claim their scpécifiques measures and find that it is unfair to make concessions to one country. Finland has obtained special guarantees with Greece to vote on the text. But these guarantees were part of the bailout.
Values to follow on Friday at the Paris Bourse.
* AXA. Offers for Axa Privaty Equity, private equity branch of the insurance group, must be filed by early next week, the Financial Times and The Tribune.
The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) said Thursday he would not consider an acquisition of Axa Private Equity.
* DEXIA. Belgian finance ministers and French planned to meet Monday to discuss the future of Dexia, a bank in the center of intense negotiations on a possible restructuring, write Friday Les Echos. No one was immediately available at Bercy or the Belgian Ministry of Finance to comment on this article.
* SOCIETE GENERALE.UBS lowered its recommendation to buy from neutral and cut its price target to 21 euros against 35 euros.
* SOITEC sought to reassure the market on sales growth plates in the first half of 2011-2012, two days after a warning from Advanced Micro Devices, its main customer, on their own perspectives.
Wall Street opened up Friday, contrary to what foreshadowed the future, which indicated a first down and then open with little variation.
Some thought that profit-taking would arise from the opening given the gains accumulated in four sessions. If the opening movement continues, the S & P 500 is on track louse save his best week since early July.
For now, he earns 0.5% to 1215.33. The Dow Jones ahead by 0.5% to 11,488.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index is 0.3% to 2615.08.
Fellows prepare for the publication of the index of consumer confidence published by the University of Michigan. It is intended to 56.5 against 55.7 in August.
Boeing gained 1% to 64.98 dollars.Air France-KLM announced plan to order 110 aircraft divided equally between Airbus and the American manufacturer.
Yahoo takes 1.5% to 15.11 dollars. According to the media, the private equity fund Silver Lake is considering an offer.
The Court of Appeal of Paris Thursday approved the waiver of tender offer (OPA) given to Hermes by the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), giving the luxury group the green light to build his family holding company .
To counter the aims of LVMH, who had taken a surprise 17% stake in Hermes October 2010 (which has since increased this stake to 21.4%), the family shareholders of Hermes had opted for the creation a privately held holding company comprising 50.2% of the capital.
Legally obliged to launch a takeover bid for the balance, they had requested a waiver that had been granted by the AMF in January and has been an appeal by the Association for the defense of minority shareholders ( Adam).
The trading of the Hermes is suspended on Thursday.It will resume Friday.
Global stock markets have tumbled again Monday, frightened by the event of bankruptcy of Greece. Paris dropped more than 4%, ending at its lowest level since April 2009. French banks have lost more than 10% of their value. The trading floor in Frankfurt
Global stock markets tumbled again Monday, maddened by the assumption of more and more openly discussed a bankruptcy of Greece despite the soothing statements from European officials.
"The events taking place in Europe affect a growing market with a flurry of distressing information," noted Patrick O'Hare, Financial Analysis Site Briefing. "The markets anticipate scenarios very dark and do not want to remember that the darkest assumptions," added Yves Marc, Global Equities."We remain in a market in flux guided by fear," added Franklin Pichard, Director Barclays stock.
All European stock markets ended the day deep in red, Paris, Milan and Madrid, ending even the lowest for two and a half years. Briefly falling over 5% in early afternoon in Paris because of particular concerns for French banks, under threat of a deterioration in their rating by the rating agency Moody's.
European shares, which had already been a Black Friday, continued to plunge. In closing, Paris was unscrewed from 4.03% to 3.89% Milan, Madrid from 3.41%. Frankfurt yielded 2.27% and 1.63% in London. In Asia, Tokyo ended down 2.31% and 4.21% of Hong Kong.
Wall Street resisted in the middle of the session: to 16:00, the Dow Jones that yielded 0.75%.But the trend remained fragile and could accelerate the losses from one moment to another, stressed brokers.
The hypothesis of a failure of Greece, or even leaving the euro area, continues to gain ground and influence markets. "European officials are trying to take a more firm vis-à-vis Greece, in front of a ras-le-bol growing against the bailouts in Europe and North against austerity in the south "in the region, said Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets.
This weekend, the German Minister of Economy Philipp Rösler has not ruled out a bankruptcy ordered Greece to save the single currency before the department will remember come Monday that Athens had its place in the euro .
The Commission President José Manuel Barroso and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in turn tried to restore calm by ensuring, in a joint statement after a meeting in Berlin, the EFSF, in its strengthened would be operational by the end of the month.
The European Financial Stability Fund created last year, bringing relief to struggling countries, must in particular be allowed to buy government bonds on the secondary market. Athens, which is desperately trying to reassure its creditors, has pledged Sunday to take additional steps to save $ 2 billion in 2011.
The European Commission has welcomed the announcements and said that the donor countries meeting in a Troika-European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund-would return to the country "in the coming days." The atmosphere had deteriorated markedly since the unexpected departure of the country of a Troika mission in early September.
Bank stocks, especially in France, have been particularly turbulent Monday, weighed down by their exposure to sovereign debt and fears about their solvency. BNP Paribas has unscrewed from 12.35%, 10.64% of Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale of 10.75%.
"Whatever the scenario Greek and supplies to go, French banks have the means to cope," he tried to reassure the French Minister of Economy and Finance, Baroin, reiterating a message delivered in the morning by the governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer.
"We are ready to provide liquidity to banks requested" to "unlimited" and "fixed" for the euro area, for his part reiterated the governor of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet, in his as a spokesman for the group of major central banks.
The week promises to be crucial. Wednesday, an emergency meeting of the IMF to be held on Greece and the finance ministers of the euro area and European Union will meet Friday and Saturday in Poland to try to complete the second level of support Greece nearly 160 billion euros, promised the country July 21.
However, the markets seem to doubt the capacity of policy to agree and thus to regain control the crisis, especially after the G7 meeting on Friday and Saturday, which has resulted in "no action" according to an analyst.
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the seven richest countries in the world (G7) have simply promised Friday to Marseille to respond "strong" and "coordinated" to the crisis but without specifying their strategy.
Considered a value at risk in this context, the euro was heavily abused: Monday he touched its lowest level since mid-February against the dollar and 10 years against the yen.
On the debt market, the rates of German and U.S. bonds, safe havens, were at their historic low.Conversely, interest rates have soared Monday in a securities issuance of public debt in Italy.
