The rating agency Moody's scratched on the first "triple A" French, by giving three months to assess its stable outlook, on a background of slower growth, crisis in the euro area and calls for a recapitalization of banks.
A nearly six months of the presidential election, the French authorities have once again assured Tuesday that they would do anything to keep the maximum score, which allows the country to finance at low cost, and promised new measures if needed.
But their room for maneuver seems limited because growth such as trust are affected globally in a context of anxiety in financial markets.
Bank stocks have fallen to the Paris Stock Exchange after the announcement of Moody's, while the yield on the French debt and insurance against the risk of default (CDS) rose, the yield spread between French and German debt (spread ) reaching a high for 16 years.
Moody's does not mention specifically the possibility of a perspective "negative" on the Aaa French, but if it were to lower the perspective, a downgrade could occur over the next two years.
"The 'triple A' is not in danger because we will answer these and we will be even ahead of the goals of deficit reduction," said French Finance Minister, Baroin, on France 2."If necessary, we will take steps for the appointment."
"We will make every effort not to be degraded," he added, noting that "we still have enough tax loopholes, if necessary, we will remove them."
GROWTH flu
The rating agency said in a statement: "In the next three months, Moody's will review and assess the stable outlook against the government's progress in the implementation of these measures (fiscal consolidation-Ed), taking into account all economic and market potential negative. "
Moody's also refers to the likely increase in the French contribution to the rescue of Greece and the prospect of a recapitalization of banks in the country, to which the State may need to participate.
"The deterioration in the debt figures and the possible emergence of new financial commitments put pressure on the stable outlook of the Aaa rating of the state" French, says the agency.
Engine of French public deficit, the country's growth next year should be much lower than the 1.75% forecast by the government, which may influence the path that should lead France to a deficit of 4 , 5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013, after 5.7% this year.
According to the survey conducted by Reuters with a score of economists, and they expect an average growth of 1.0% next year.
Baroin has for the first time said Tuesday that the objective of 1.75% was "probably too high."
Economists polled by Reuters Tuesday, believe that the economic downturn is the first threat to France and its sovereign rating, a threat reinforced by the possibility of further government intervention to resolve the crisis in the eurozone and strengthen the banks.
"The Triple A French is a little on the hot seat, especially if the French economy was facing a shock much deeper than what we anticipated," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist at Natixis.
For Gilles Moec, an economist at Deutsche Bank, "the issue of growth is most important because it constitutes the core of the macroeconomic strategy of France.""The engine stalled, forcing more likely to act on the structural deficit."
Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management, for its part said that "if growth is not expected robustness, the objective of reducing the budget deficit will not."
Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at Aurel Leven, said meanwhile that "bank recapitalization would impact the debt but the real problem is the trajectory of public finances and therefore growth."
PUZZLE AND EUROPEAN PRESIDENTIAL
Moody's notes that the level of debt of France is among the highest Aaa rated countries, while remaining content with a relatively low weight of the interests of debt to government revenue.
But the ability to fund high levels of debt "is based on investor confidence in the government's ability and willingness to cope with unexpected challenges," the agency said.
A situation even more critical that the chronic current account of France requires it to obtain financing from foreign investors.
François Fillon on Tuesday urged members to refrain from bidding on the draft budget for 2012, including the examination begins on Tuesday, with specific reference to the warning from Moody's.
"In this context, the budget debate must be exemplary," said the head of government before the UMP group, reported a number of members present at the meeting.
A weakening of the "triple A" French further complicate the resolution of the crisis in the eurozone, France, with Germany being the main contributor to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the European support fund, whose rating depends part of those of its contributors.
Beyond the EFSF, the European dynamic could be profoundly affected if the second largest economy in the euro area clinched the best student, Germany.
The threat of a possible negative watch placement of Aaa, should also limit a little more room for maneuver of the candidates in the presidential election of April-May
The Socialist candidate Francois Hollande and his family have announced that their action, if they win the presidency, will be dictated by the need to preserve the confidence of creditors of France.
China's trade surplus declined in September for the second consecutive month, reflecting the weakness of the global economy and the slowdown in China itself.
Import growth as exports slowed last month.The accentuation of the debt crisis in Europe and the slower growth in the U.S. explain this trend, which could enhance the Chinese authorities in the conflict on the level of the yuan.
"The rising exchange rate of the renminbi could limit the margin of export growth", has also speedily regretted Lu Peijun, deputy director of China Customs, at a press conference.
"China still faced inflationary pressure imported relatively strong and the terms of trade deteriorate as well," he added.
Exports grew by 17.1% last month compared to September 2010, after a growth rate of 24.5% the previous month, according to data released Thursday by the Office of Customs.
At the same time, imports increased by 20.9% yoy against 30.2% in August.
The surplus in the trade balance of China and stood at $ 14.5 billion in September, against 16.3 billion average expected by economists and after 17.8 billion in August.This represents less than half of the surplus in July, which amounted to 31.5 billion.
Year over year, the trade surplus appears to 180.3 billion dollars.
"Export growth in September was much lower than the expectations of the markets, reflecting the global economy coughs, and we expect this trend to slowing exports will continue in the coming months" , Analysis Wang Hu, of Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.
"The narrowing trade surplus and a slowdown in imported inflation could ease the pressure on Beijing to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan," said Du Zhengzheng for its part, an analyst with China Development Bank Securities.
Economists, relayed by western politicians, believe that the Chinese currency is undervalued, giving an advantage to the products 'made in China' on the international markets.
In Washington, the Senate passed a bill Tuesday that could force Beijing to raise the price of its currency under penalty of imports of Chinese goods taxed. China denounces protectionism in disguise and an obstacle to world trade rules. (See)
The trade surplus of China vis-à-vis the United States, however, remained unchanged from August to September, 20 billion.
Vis-à-vis the European Union, it decreased to $ 12.9 billion against 14.8 billion in August.
Slovakia is the latest member of the eurozone to vote strengthening of the European financial stability. Part of the coalition threatened not to accept the text. If no vote, there is no "plan B" according Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman for the European Commission. Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman of the European Commission for Economic Affairs.
The last step seems to be the most difficult to cross to Europe. Slovakia is the 17th and last country in Europe to vote on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and part of the coalition threatened not to accept the text. Without the approval of Bratislava, the plan can not enter into force in accordance Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman of the European Commission for Economic Affairs. Interview.
Slovakia Can Europe block?
We hope there will be a positive vote in Bratislava.But if Slovakia did not accept the text, the plan will remain outstanding. And if the vote is negative, the plan falls apart. The EFSF will then remain in its current state but will not have the means to ensure the protection of the euro, as it is supposed to do in its new form.
Ratification does not seem won …
We're not there yet. The Slovak authorities have committed heavily to vote the text. Besides the Prime Minister Iveta Radicova has resigned on the table in case of refusal of the plan by the coalition. Our message was to the Slovak authorities to say that strengthening the EFSF is in their interest. It may be very useful to the country if the crisis in the euro area spreads.
Can you put pressure on Slovakia?
What do you want, the Commission took power in Bratislava? We can not force the country to ratify the plan.This is the responsibility of all political actors. We can not require Member States is in the nature of the European Union. States have decided to vote the text unanimously in 2010 against the advice of the Commission. If we had done by a qualified majority, we would not be here.
This is not the first time that Slovakia played bad students …
We have already had a fantastic story with this government. Parliamentary elections in 2010, Prime Minister of the country – currently in power – has campaigned on his opposition to help countries better off than him. Then, the arrival of Iveta Radicova as Prime Minister, the party decided in June to stop its bilateral loans to Greece in the forefront of support. The decision was taken after the second installment.It is now the sixth …
Part of the coalition claims to be exempt from participating in EFSF (7 billion euros 440 billion in total). Can we modify the agreement to allow Slovakia to vote on the plan?
The agreement was ratified by 16 member states before it, we can not change it for a country. What would the other parliaments have already voted if the text were changed to the Treaty? They could also claim their scpécifiques measures and find that it is unfair to make concessions to one country. Finland has obtained special guarantees with Greece to vote on the text. But these guarantees were part of the bailout.
Air Liquide finds no significant decrease in demand of its customers and believes that the market environment for the group was relatively normal, except for some adjustments in the electronics, said Tuesday its CEO Benoît Potier.
"We do not see a significant drop in consumption by our customers.At this point we can say that the economy remains strong for Air Liquide, "said the boss of the world's largest industrial gases reporters.
He was speaking on the sidelines of the presentation of tests of electric vehicles to hydrogen at the Circuit de Marcoussis (Essonne).
"The environment was relatively normal, so the consumption of our customers large and small ways consistent with what we had until now," said Benoît Potier, whose group has clients in sectors as diverse as Health, refining and steel.
Air Liquide was confirmed in early August target steady growth in net profit in 2011 "in a normal environment."
Asked if he confirmed the group's objectives in 2011, Benoît Potier declined to comment, a few weeks before the publication of revenue for the third quarter scheduled Oct. 26.
The strategic plan "Alma 2015", introduced in December 2010, is an average annual growth of 8% to 10% of sales – compared to 9.2% as reported in the first half of 2011 – and a sustained increase of Net income in the past five years.
The share was down 1.18% to 85.66 euros by 24:50, outperforming the market, down 2.7%.
The new austerity measures agreed on Sunday will not allow Greece to limit the budget deficit to 7.4% of GDP in 2011 as it had promised. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Parliament during the vote of a new austerity plan, June 30, 2011.
Greece confirmed Sunday that it would not achieve the objective of reducing the public deficit set in June 2011, but recovered over the bar skid found its creditors in September, after the introduction of new measures austerity.
The draft budget for 2012 containing new objectives, to be tabled in parliament on Monday passed Sunday night during a special cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister George Papandreou, in which was set the difficult reduction plan public as required by international creditors Greece.According to the draft budget, in 2011, the deficit of Greece will be reduced to 8.5% of GDP against 10.5% in 2010. The deficit remains above the target of 7.4% of GDP set in the initial multi-year legislation passed in June, but it is significantly better than the projection made in early September by the troika of creditors which stood then at Athens around 9.5% of GDP, according to the press.
This exceeded the deficit target in 2011 means that Greece will need two billion more if only to fund its spending this year.It also means that tax increases and wage cuts announced over the last two months by the Papandreou government have failed to redress the country's finances.
Growth forecasts for the budget adopted in 2012 point to a contraction of 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and 2.0-2.5% next year. These figures are the latest IMF projections, but are much more pessimistic than the projections used to calculate the bailout plan of 109 billion euros on July 21, anticipating a growth of 0.6% in 2012.
The copy of the Greek government and its financial projections will be examined Monday by the finance ministers of the Eurogroup and Luxembourg on Tuesday to those of the European Union, which must decide whether or not pay the next tranche of 8 billion, vital to the troubled country.By the end of August, the government warned it would not take its goal of reducing the deficit mainly because of the worsening recession. Officials of the troika (EU-IMF-ECB) to inspect the country's public finances and fiscal consolidation had left Athens when requesting the introduction of new corrective action to reduce costs and increase revenue.
"The additional austerity measures announced for 2011 and 2012 equivalent to 6.6 billion euros," said the Ministry of Finance said in a statement Sunday. Among them are the introduction of a new tax on real estate levied on electricity bills, lower pensions in excess of 1,200 euros per month, lowering the threshold for income tax to 5,000 euros annually. VAT on food increased from 13 to 23% in September.
The main difficulty concerns the lay-off of some 30,000 public sector employees by creating a "reserve labor force" where they will be affected for a year with salaries reduced to 60% of their basic pay . After one year some will be laid off. The choice will be based on criteria of age, persons over 60 years to be entered automatically in the program. The mechanism of labor reserves in its final version is the most "painless socially speaking" it was possible to adopt, said government spokesman Elias Mossialos in a statement.
In 2012, the Greek government expects a further reduction of public deficits, by setting a target of 6.8% of GDP instead of 6.5% forecast in June, 14.65 billion euros.And Greece should reach next year for the first time a primary surplus of 3.2 billion euros of public finances, excluding debt service.
According to the newspaper Kathimerini, the Troika mission, which returned to Athens on Thursday after an absence of nearly a month, could continue until Friday, October 7. The German finance minister warned last week that no final decision would be taken on the payment or not the next aid installment loan of 110 billion made in May 2010 in Greece, before 13 October .
The Court of Appeal of Paris Thursday approved the waiver of tender offer (OPA) given to Hermes by the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), giving the luxury group the green light to build his family holding company .
To counter the aims of LVMH, who had taken a surprise 17% stake in Hermes October 2010 (which has since increased this stake to 21.4%), the family shareholders of Hermes had opted for the creation a privately held holding company comprising 50.2% of the capital.
Legally obliged to launch a takeover bid for the balance, they had requested a waiver that had been granted by the AMF in January and has been an appeal by the Association for the defense of minority shareholders ( Adam).
The trading of the Hermes is suspended on Thursday.It will resume Friday.
The producer prices fell by 0.1% in France in June, the decline in oil prices continues, show figures released Friday by INSEE.
Eight economists polled by Reuters on average expected a 0.1% increase, with estimates ranging from -0.3% to 1.0%.
The index fell 0.5% in May, which elected its first decline in 20 months (September 2009).
In one year, the index of producer prices in the French industry is up sharply, by 6.1%.
Prices of petroleum products were down 2.2% in June after -4.6% in May The increase over one year remains 21.6%.
The food prices rose 0.4% in June as in May. In one year, their increase is 7.3%.
The Energy Minister ensures that the oil group affects many drops in oil prices "as fast" that increases their prices at the pump. Eric Besson it was again taken to the "extravagant claims" of politicians who had pointed to the huge profits of Total.
The Energy Minister Eric Besson Tuesday flew to the rescue of Total, by ensuring that the largest oil and other fuel distributors in France echoed the declines in oil prices on the increases in prices at the pump.Based on a study conducted by his office on a weekly fuel prices compared to oil prices over the last six months, Eric Besson has been very positive after a meeting with the boss of Total, Christophe de Margerie.
The results are "very clear," assured the minister, adding that all distributors hexagonal had followed suit. "For transparency is even greater, I asked my services to go further and to study on a daily basis over the period from May 15 to July 15," he added."We can not deny that there is a voltage related to the growing demand for petroleum products, speculation does not explain everything," the minister warned, however, citing a "first explanatory factor, which is increasing demand consuming countries, including emerging markets. "
The recurring debate on fuel prices, and rate of impact by the distributors of the evolution of oil prices falling or rising, there was revived ten days by the head of Total, in the midst departures on holiday.After a decline following the decision in late June, the member countries of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) to tap into their strategic oil stocks, Christophe de Margerie warned in early July of a new rise in prices the pump.
Two cents increase in just two weeks
Initially, the decision of the IEA has lowered prices at the pump in France about 4 cents, but they had already taken two cents just two weeks later.And prices rose again last week, according to the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) which at an average of 1.3357 euros per liter of diesel, against 1.3061 the previous week, to 1, 5179 that of SP95 (against 1.4844) and 1.5535 per liter of SP98 (against 1.5224).
As he had done the day before, Eric Besson again Tuesday lambasted the "extravagant claims" of politicians who, at the height of the controversy on fuel, had pointed to the huge profits of Total, more than 10 billion euros in 2010. "There are a number of politicians who decide to put oil on the fire," he complained.
The minister, however, attached to relativize the importance of his meeting with Christophe de Margerie, "My meetings with leaders of major energy companies are regular," he said.That of Tuesday with the head of Total was scheduled for "three weeks-one month", before relaunching the debate on fuel.
Air France-KLM confirmed on Thursday the announcement for this summer's mega-control devices, its chief executive noting that Airbus and Boeing offered each of the competitive products.
One hundred MPs have launched a petition in June to urge Air France, which the state holds 15.7% stake, to choose the future long-haul Airbus A350 instead of the Boeing 787 "Dreamliner" for his next command, which could include hundreds of devices.
"Both offer very competitive products in terms of technical performance and economic performance, our work is to improve this proposal, especially economically," he told reporters after the general meeting.
Shareholders voted 94% for four years the renewal of the appointment of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, who became Group Chief Executive on 1 January 2009.
Pierre-Henri Gourgeon declined to comment on press reports indicating the imminence of a decision, possibly as early as July, the appointment of a general manager for Air France, in the part of an overhaul of the governance of the group.
The favorite to lead the Air France is Juniac Alexander, Chief of Staff of the former economy minister Christine Lagarde who has been leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Tuesday, according to the press.
Air France-KLM has returned to profit in 2010-2011 thanks to the resumption of traffic and cost savings, but decided not to pay a dividend to ensure its long-term goals, including reducing its ratio of debt.
The shareholders also voted 97% passing results on the calendar year instead of stalling the pace of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), whose financial year from 1 April to 31 March.
The group anticipates for 2011 an increase in operating income compared to 28 million in 2010 thanks to its resistance to an environment made uncertain by the "Arab Spring" and rising oil prices.
Air France-KLM has also announced a 2.9% increase in passenger traffic in June.
The stock closed down 2.45% to 10.53 euros, thus showing a decline of nearly 23% since the beginning of the year.
The British agency for media buying Aegis said Wednesday that it now Ipsos exclusive discussions with the sale of Synovate, its market research subsidiary.
Aegis said this month to negotiate for the sale of Synovate, which analysts value at around 500 million pounds (556.7 million euros). According to sources familiar with the matter, Ipsos had taken the first step.
A sale of this subsidiary would provide a spotlight on the activities of Aegis, presented long as acquisition targets of Havas.
These two groups have common shareholder as the businessman Vincent Bolloré. The latter suggested in May that it would be willing to sell its share of Aegis.
