The insurance group Axa announced Friday a stable revenue for the first quarter of 2012 and said he hoped to have decided the fate of its private equity subsidiary, Axa Private Equity, of By the end of the year.
Axa has confirmed the end of September to have committed "a strategic review" for the national champion of private equity but talks with potential buyers seem to have since stalled. (And see)
"A priori the outcome and the results of this strategic review, it is hoped that this will be completed before the end of the year," said Chief Financial Officer Gerald Harlin at a conference call to discuss the indicators of activity of the group for the first three months of the year.
The fate of this subsidiary represents some economic issue for France, say some observers.
Axa Private Equity is indeed a major investor in the territory and its French base becomes even more desirable for new financial rules could scarce investment capital in companies.
The essential part of its business, the French insurance giant announced a turnover up 0.8% to 28.056 billion euros for the first quarter.
The growth in business damage (3.3% to 9.973 billion euros) offset the virtual stagnation of the life segment and Savings (-0.2% to 15.956 billion of euros) and a lower turnover in the management of assets (-9.6% to 827 million euros).
Gérald Harlin said these results were in line with the strategic plan for 2015 presented by Axa last year.
This plan would redeploy some capital to the group of high-growth markets and, more generally, to focus on margins and volumes.
The CFO also said that the situation in Greece and the euro area was creating a climate of "volatility" in financial markets but in Axa took full account.
"It positions itself especially on segments that are least sensitive (…). This is why we are fast growing activity on the protection, welfare," at he said.
He nevertheless admitted that the life insurance segment continued to suffer from macroeconomic conditions in Europe.
"We're in a world of low interest rates and are done with," he concluded.
The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande. Its program in effect no longer perceived as a threat to investors. Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night.
The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande, whose program is no longer perceived as a threat by investors . "The week promises to be high risk, but paradoxically Greece weigh maybe more in the balance as the French election," said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at Credit Suisse.
Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night. The Paris Bourse certainly gives ground for several weeks, but this trend is common to all European financial centers, plagued by fears about the economy of the eurozone. And the cost of refinancing the public debt of France has not increased more between the two rounds of presidential elections.
No challenge to the Treaty on the financial stability
Paris has borrowed Thursday nearly 7.5 billion euros at rates down. "Mr. Holland should not undermine the Treaty on European financial stability, but rather add to it a component of growth. On this point, it is not alone in wishing that in Europe, which tends to reassure "said Ms. Plagnol.
Long reluctant, Berlin is ready to work to "a growth pact for more competitiveness," the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, would also give this theme "at the center of the agenda" European. Mr. Holland on Sunday evening could have an exchange on these topics with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to one of his advisers.
If revenues diverge, more tracks are already being considered: increase the borrowing capacity of the European Investment Bank (EIB), spend more European structural funds in the euro area, establish 'project bonds', the European bonds for a specific project, or authorize the European Stability Mechanism (MES) to help a struggling industry and not just a state.
For Laurence Boone, chief economist for Europe U.S. investment bank Merrill Lynch, BofA, the alternation in France does not worry because "investors expect to conduct a moderate social policy".
Greece in the heart of concerns with the rise of extremist parties
Greece, whose people voted on Sunday for early elections, however crystallizes much more concern. Both sides pro-austerity, PASOK (Socialist) and New Democracy (right), who ruled together in a coalition since November 2011 collapsed in parliamentary elections Sunday, bringing together between 31 and 37% against more 77% in 2009, according to exit polls.
If they were confirmed, this collapse would make almost impossible the formation of a coalition government by both parties to continue the austerity dictated by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. "The country's creditors (IMF, EU and ECB) may at least temporarily suspend their aid," worries Stephane Deo at UBS. "The government can more quickly pay its civil servants and pensions, which will lead to very high tensions on financial markets," he warns.
In >>> Direct: Soon the results of the second round of the presidential election between Sarkozy and Holland
Standard & Poor's said Wednesday raising the rating to CCC from the Greek sovereign debt, which is no longer so in default, a decision no surprise since the country has reduced its liabilities by about a third after a debt restructuring complex and unprecedented.
S & P maintains this climate speculative grade ("junk") and warned that a deep recession, the unpredictable outcome of the elections on May 6 and wrath of public opinion against the austerity could threaten the efforts of Athens to redress its finances.
S & P, which matched the rating with a stable outlook, provides that Greek sovereign debt will remain high over the next three years, around 160 to 170% of GDP.
"The rating could be degraded if we believe that a forced exchange on what remains of the Greek private debt appears likely," the agency said in a statement.
Fitch was the first to recover the note by assigning a B-to Greece in the middle of March, after the establishment of the exchange procedure which reduced about 100 billion sovereign debt of the country and cost the private bondholders most of their assets.
S & P warned in February that it would report surely the Greek notes to CCC, upon completion of the exchange procedure.
Moody's is now the only agency to keep Greece in zone fault (likely in his case). She said it would review his notes "on time" but that any recovery would remain limited.
The Group of Twenty (G20) pledged Friday to give the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over $ 430 billion of additional resources to identify the debt crisis of the euro area.
The agreement doubles the capacity of the IMF loan, which was the goal set by its Executive Director Christine Lagarde at the opening meetings of the IMF and World Bank this weekend.
"There are firm commitments to increase resources available to the IMF more than $ 430 billion, in addition to the planned quota increase under the reform of 2010" , declared in a statement the finance ministers and central bankers from the G20, referring to the project to give emerging countries a say in the larger fund.
Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. equity markets have confounded the pessimists, and employment figures of February in the U.S., expected in late week, could well justify a continued rise.
The 'rally' stock in recent months has been built on a series of economic indicators improving, which suggest that growth in U.S. corporate earnings remain intact, analysts said.
But some strategists warn against a downward trend, while the main New York indexes have reached key thresholds and that the publication of results for the fourth quarter draws to a close.
The Standard & Poor's 500 rose in eight of nine weeks past. During the past week, the Dow finished above 13,000 points for the first time since May 2008, and the S & P 500 closed twice over resistance threshold of 1,370 points.
The Nasdaq composite crossed the threshold of its side of the 3,000 points and is trading around its highest level since 2000.
Some believe that Wall Street could continue to rise thanks to new macroeconomic indicators considered solid.
"The question is: 'Are we witnessing a sustained improvement in the economy?' I think the answer is yes, and that the rally will continue somewhat, "says Bryant Evans, portfolio manager and advisor for Cozad Asset Management, Illinois.
Detailed figures for February employment in the United States must be published Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect 210,000 new jobs outside agriculture, against 243,000 the previous month.
This would mark the third consecutive month of job creation. The unemployment rate is meanwhile expected unchanged at 8.3%, its lowest level in three years. To investors, such figures would bring additional proof of a recovery in the U.S. economy.
Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. has already been revised up to 3.0% annualized in the fourth quarter of 2011, its highest rate , since the second quarter 2010, according to the second estimate published Wednesday by the Commerce Department.
TAKING PROFITS tempting
Now that the second bailout of Greece seems on track and that the earnings season draws to a close, investors are more focused on macroeconomic data.
Rising oil prices, bolstered by the tensions around Iran, however, could darken the horizon. Brent crude is trading above $ 120, an ominous trend when Europe seems to be sliding into recession.
Also in Europe, the first funds of the new aid package to Greece could be paid immediately after the debt swap between Athens and its private creditors s, to be concluded by 9 March.
In any event, investors had gains high enough since the beginning of the year to consider taking profits.
The S & P 500, who finished almost unchanged in 2011, increased by 9% since the beginning of the year.
U.S. ECONOMY, THE ENGINE RALLY
Health of the U.S. economy now looks up the engine for stock markets, investors wanting to believe that a recovering economy will spur creation of jobs and profits up.
Regarding the fourth quarter, the share of companies exceeding expectations is declining.
A 9.4% quarterly earnings growth is also lower than in previous quarters, but analysts want to believe that the recovery of the U.S. economy will help to avoid settling too brutal.
"From our perspective, as the employment situation continues to improve, we are on track," said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager at Austin.
Monday, the ISM services will provide an overview of the activity of tertiary service last month.
The ADP survey on job creation in the private sector in the United States, released Wednesday, will precede the official statistics on Friday.
The Federal Reserve estimates that the U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace from January to mid February, the hiring is being légé ; LY accelerated in many parts of the United States.
In the beige book of the U.S. central bank, released Wednesday, the Fed also notes some improvements in the property sector although, overall, the tone is as careful as in the pre ; cédente edition of this document.
"The conditions in the housing market have improved somewhat in most districts," we read in the paper.
Manufacturing is one who is doing best, with most of the 12 Fed districts with a rise in new orders.
The price of a liter of unleaded 95 euro climbed to 1.5640, while that of 98 unleaded rose to 1.6022 euro. This surge is due to tensions in Iran and the decline of the euro.
The price of gasoline at the pump hit new highs Friday in France, according to data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Sustainable Development, those of diesel playing in contrast to the decline. The price of a liter of unleaded 95 euro climbed to 1.5640, while that of unleaded 98 (whose sales are much lower in SP95) rose to 1.6022 euro, surpassing both levels records they had met in January, according to figures compiled by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (EDCM).
However, diesel is still trending down, to 1.3960 euro per liter last week against a peak of 1.4240 in mid-January, and well below its spring 2008 record (1.4541 euro ). These are national averages calculated by the DGEC from data provided by service stations.
This surge is linked to two phenomena, geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nigeria …) that keep crude oil prices at very high levels, and weakening of the euro against the dollar, which increases the cost of black gold imported into France, once its price converted into the single currency. Diesel sales represent about 80% of French consumption of motor fuels, the unleaded 95 just under 15% and unleaded approximately 98% 5.
The Industry Minister, Eric Besson, promised that the potential beneficiaries of social tariffs for electricity consumption of course apply from 1 January even if the measure of automatic access is still not back in force.
While consumption in électricté soaring these days, the automatic assignment of social tariffs for electricity is still conspicuously absent. Yet the measure was to take effect January 1. This had been announced in the fall of Eric Besson, Minister of Energy. Faced with this bug, it has reiterated on Friday that the device, once it enters into force, will be properly applied "to the gas bills and electricity consumption corresponding to January 1, 2012." In other words retroactively.
This delay, which is expected to continue for several more weeks, is due to the fact that the "last formal consultations" between government and industry should always be held together with a notice of the State Council, said the Ministry of energy, confirming the information of Paris …
These special rates are reserved for beneficiaries of the Universal Health Coverage (CMU) or any person whose monthly income is less than 634 euros per month (for a single person). Entered into force in 2005 for electricity and gas in 2008, social tariffs were previously allocated upon application to rights-holders (the limit is 7800 euros in annual revenue to about a single person and 11,700 for childless couple, ed), but by lack of information or administrative complexity, many do not demand.
Only 600,000 households currently receive social tariffs so that 1.5 to 2 million are eligible, a situation that had prompted the government to promise its automation. The reduction is estimated by EDF and GDF Suez at about 90 euros per year for electricity and 140 euros for gas.
"The decree is under consideration by the Council of State, he should be able to give its opinion in the coming weeks, when he will have the last formal consultations that are normally involved in early (February editor's note) . The decree will be published in the coming days, "the ministry said.
In connection communication, the President of the Syndicat Intercommunal the outskirts of Paris for the Electricity and Communication Networks (Sipperec) Catherine Peyge said there was "urgent." Some 3.8 million households, or 14.4% of French households in the metropolis, are currently considered in fuel poverty, meaning they spend more than 10% of their budget on their energy bills, says she said. "What do public authorities to publish the decree and to end the anomaly whereby a tariff, decided in 2000, implemented in 2005, still can not protect the families who need? Meanwhile the prices of electricity rose by 6% in two years, and the bill could jump by 30% by 2016 ", criticized Ms. Peyge.
Former European Commissioner Mario Monti was the favorite Thursday to succeed Silvio Berlusconi as head of the Italian government and try to counter the surge in borrowing costs in the country, another who briefly relieved the European stock exchanges.
The Economist, 68, former European Commissioner and now president of Bocconi University in Milan, is seen for weeks by the markets as the best candidate to lead a government of national unity and implementation of emergency austerity measures needed to redress the accounts of the country.The Paris Bourse was almost in equilibrium, Frankfurt advanced 0.5% and London gave up 0.45%.
Discussions in the PDL
Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has appointed Mario Monti senator for life Wednesday. Investors saw this as a sign that he would ask him to try to form a government from the start of Silvio Berlusconi, expected in the coming days.
And as the cost of borrowing to ten years in Italy continue to grow beyond 7%, a level deemed unsustainable by many, the assumption of a unity government seems to be gaining ground in the PDL.
"The LDP can not simply follow the call to the polls that emanates from the core," said Foreign Minister Franco Frattini in an interview with Corriere della Sera.
To believe an important elected PASOK in power, Prime Minister George Papandreou resigned after agreement on a transitional government will be concluded in Greece, possibly as early as Sunday evening.
Objectives, duration and the choice of the directing personality similar government must be acquired before the start of the power of the current prime minister, said on national television MP Telemachos Hitiris.
"Just wait for the announcement of the (selection) Prime Minister in the cabinet. Everything must be done in the day, otherwise it will be hell tomorrow," he warned.
