While global stock markets fell Tuesday for fear of failing the Greek debt restructuring, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial ensures that the operation "should proceed smoothly."
Stop the panic that gripped markets. Two days before the deadline given to private creditors of Greece to accept or not the deletion of part of the country's debt, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Ollie Rehn, steps into the breach. In an interview with Le Figaro, he argues that the operation "should proceed smoothly." And adds: "From the information we collect, the debt swap should take place smoothly, as the transaction is financially attractive to the private sector"
The Finnish Commissioner was asked about whether the fact that the dreaded "credit default swaps" (CDS), these insurance contracts on default of payment to be triggered if the debt exchange operation went wrong. "It is not our preferred scenario. Instead," said Rehn, while anxiety has spread in the markets Tuesday.
European shares ended the session sharply down and banking stocks were particularly hard hit, indicating investors fears of a default of Greece as we approach the result of the restructuring of its indebtedness imposing. The rate of participation of private creditors should be at least 75% for Greece to erase part of its debt (107 of the 200 billion held by private creditors) and receive the second aid package of 130 billion approved last week in Brussels.
About a third aid plan, referred to by the German weekly Der Spiegel Sunday, "this is a hypothesis that has been circulating among Cassandra, I am not …", Rehn sweeps. "Let's focus instead on the implementation of the second rescue plan, which provides a unique erase debt," he told the BBC.
The Commissioner also stated "that the risk of explosion (the eurozone) is behind us." But "the recession is here, and unemployment is worrying," he says. "We are at a critical time in which member states must keep their budget commitments, to make the necessary structural reforms, while strengthening the firewall to anti-crisis 750 billion euros in Europe," Rehn recommends.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 0.92% Tuesday, Japanese markets have erased all losses posted in early trading before going into the green and Register a fence frankly positive.
The Nikkei gained 88.59 points to 9,722.52 and the Topix broader took 3.23 points (0.39%) to 838.48.
The bankruptcy of Elpida, the first Japanese manufacturer of memory weighed on the sector, Advantest yielding 1.5% and Shin-Etsu Chemical 1.2%.
But this failure did, in the opinion of stakeholders had limited impact on investor sentiment.
European shares opened slightly lower Tuesday after Moody's decision to lower the perspective of the AAA rating of certain European countries, including France and the UK , and lower that of six states, including Spain, Italy and Portugal.
The Moody's decision weighs on market sentiment already dominated by concerns about the ability of Athens to carry out drastic austerity measures required by its lenders in exchange for a new aid plan.
"It is clear that (the decision by Moody's) do not change the deal, but they come at a time when investors are asking questions about risky assets, following a period of strong growth" said Chris Weston, institutional trader at IG Markets.
The euro and British pound lost ground against the dollar after this announcement, as the yen after a new policy easing by the Bank of Japan.
The day will be full of economic indicators including the German ZEW index and industrial production in the eurozone, as well as new auctions of sovereign debt in Europe.
In the afternoon, investors expect sales to particular details of the U.S. in January and business inventories for December.
The Paris CAC 40 index yields 0.3% to 3,374.97 points in early trade, the German Dax lost 0.1%, the UK FTSE 0.16% and the pan-European index STOXX 50 was down 0.18%.
Bank stocks in Europe (-0.57%) are among the largest declines, with insurers (-0.53%) and commodities (-0.8%).
In Paris, BNP Paribas lost 2.7%, largest drop in the CAC 40, followed by Credit Agricole (-1.64%) and Societe Generale (-1.5%).
Alcatel-Lucent continues to rise they began Friday after the publication of its first profit since 2006, and earns 4% plus increase in the CAC.
L'Oreal takes 2.1% after posting results slightly exceeded expectations, marked by a recovery in margins, and have said "well armed (…) for another year of growth in turnover and results. "
The Industry Minister Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite requests from EDF and GDF Suez.
The Minister of Industry and Energy Eric Besson confirmed Wednesday that the price of gas and electricity for individuals would be maintained until the presidential election, despite the attacks to justice and GDF Suez of other gas suppliers. Asked about RMC and BFM TV about the continued freeze gas prices to presidential, Mr Besson said: "Yes. The Prime Minister made this decision and he made it clear to the national representation . (…) In any case for individuals. "
"We have a simple thesis is that the increases should be extremely limited so as not to influence the purchasing power," he noted, without being able to specify whether this also applied to the gel subscription. For electricity, Mr. Besson is back in a statement to AFP on the remarks made earlier on the air. "It will increase slightly, probably," he said on BFM TV and RMC. "I do not know (when) we will discuss this with EDF."
Asked by AFP, the Office of the Minister of Energy said: "Eric Besson reaffirms that in accordance with the arbitration of the Prime Minister, electricity rates applicable to individuals are frozen until 1 July 2012, and no decision is expected to increase. "
The payment of a new tranche of eight billion euros to Greece was approved Friday by the finance ministers of the euro area, which, however, have found their remaining differences on the reform of the support fund euro and put their decisions on this issue later.
Meeting in Brussels, they also discussed at length the contours of the new rescue plan for Greece and the participation of banks capable of reducing the Greek debt to sustainable levels.
A report prepared by the "troika" – IMF, ECB and European Commission – representing the international donors, a 50% discount on Greek bonds held by private investors is necessary to reduce the debt to 120% of GDP against 162% today.
If it was intended to reduce debt below 110%, a discount of 60% would be necessary, the report says, as a basis for decisions of Heads of State and Government of the euro area summits on Sunday and Wednesday.
The outcome of these meetings, which should lead to a new Greek plan, a formula to maximize the funds to support the euro area and a wide recapitalization of banks on the continent, is considered crucial for the single currency.
"We decided to authorize the payment of the next tranche of financial assistance to Greece in the context of the current program of economic adjustment.The disbursements must be made in the first half of November, once approved by the International Monetary Fund, "said the finance ministers of the euro area in a statement.
Athens immediately welcomed the European decision, saying it was "a positive step."
The decision "provides the fiscal targets in 2012 and paves the way for necessary structural reforms," said Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, in a statement.
CONTINUATION OF DISCUSSION ON EFSF
According to several sources, the Europeans, however, remain largely divided on the level of the discount to be applied to Greek bonds as well as the voluntary and non-bank participation.
The German authorities, in particular Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, insist that the envelope of 50 billion euros negotiated on July 21 is significantly revised upwards, if necessary by forcing banks to make an extra effort.
Paris is reluctant for fear of triggering a credit event with unpredictable consequences.
The ministers, however, only discussed the various options available to "maximize" the firepower of the EFSF, which also divides Paris and Berlin.
The Minister of Economy, Baroin said that France continued to believe that the conversion of cash in bank was the best solution but it did not make "one final point of confrontation."
"What counts is what works.And what works is what will go towards deterrence and effective firewall and it is around this that we try to work, "said the Minister after the meeting.
Granted a banking license in EFSF would allow access to funding from the European Central Bank to increase its capacity for action by a factor of up to five.
But Berlin rejects this possibility, which would be to accept that the institution of Frankfurt finance the countries of the euro area, one of the dogmas explicitly excluded by the European treaties.
The other members of the euro area are also divided, Belgium and Spain having voted for a reconciliation BCE-EFSF while Slovakia and Austria have indicated that this solution was not studied.
The countdown has started, however, for not only the peaks of Sunday and Wednesday but above the summit of Heads of State and Government of the G20 in Cannes in early November.
Thursday night, U.S. President Barack Obama spoke on the economic situation in Europe with his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron.
The Greek Parliament approved on Thursday its new austerity plan. It provides for the establishment layoffs of 30,000 employees. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou at the EU summit of June 23, 2011.
The Greek parliament adopted Thursday night by items, with the only voice of the majority Socialist, the new law austerity contested by the opposition and on the street by the unions. The Prime Minister, George Papandreou, welcomed the vote in a letter read by the Speaker of Parliament, and announced the deregistration of one Socialist MP and former Labour Minister Louka Katseli, which marked its difference by voting every items except 37, the freezing collevtives sectoral conventions.
At the request of the opposition, a registered ballot was held about twenty articles of the law's most controversial, or in addition to Article 37, those providing for new wage cuts and layoffs in the placement of some 30,000 people in the public sector. All members of the opposition present, 144 out of 146 voted against the second day of a general strike against these measures by the unions, and massive anti-austerity rallies interspersed with incidents.
The rest of the articles was adopted by a simplified procedure following the roll call vote, while the law had already adopted "in principle" on Wednesday night. A new formal vote "throughout the text" has been postponed to a later meeting, said the Chairman. The Ministry of Finance said earlier that it was only a formality.
The adoption of this law, required by the creditors of the country, European Union and International Monetary Fund fell "national responsibility", so that the country "avoid bankruptcy" by receiving a new tranche of international loans, said M . Papandreou. He also found that the country gained in strength and to negotiate in the EU and the euro area for a resolution of the problem of its indebtedness.
European leaders are putting added pressure on banks to force them to recapitalize and enable them to withstand greater losses than expected on the sovereign debt of the most fragile countries in the euro area.
While being held in Paris the meeting of G20 Finance Friday and Saturday, the market hopes to see political leaders overcome their differences to meet a debt crisis that threatens the stability of the euro area and the strength of the European banking system.
"For now, investors give them the benefit of the doubt," said Patrick Moonen, strategist at ING Investment Management, in a note entitled "Good luck to political leaders."
Pending the outcome of the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the G20, the surveillance by Fitch notes several banks – including Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank or Societe Generale – show the difficulties faced by banks today.Difficulties that have driven the last weekend the French-Belgian Dexia decommissioning.
In exchange, the banks Friday was the only sector to finish down in Europe (-0.59%).
The President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated Friday that several European banks needed to be recapitalized.
The crucial step remains the European Council of 23 October at which Germany and France will unveil their proposals for overcoming the crisis. Both countries said they already sealed their agreements without specifying its content.
"We have never been so close to a solution (to the debt crisis, Ed). But this is not done," warns David Thebault, head of quantitative trading at Global Equities."There is concern that the market takes it badly if there is no announcement of precise and detailed plan on October 23 and November 3 (G20 Cannes, Ed).I remain cautious. "
The Franco-German proposals will include a bank recapitalization and strengthening the response capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).
SIX MONTHS to recapitalize
In preparation for the European Council, the European Banking Authority (EBA) provides a new set of stress tests of the banking sector.
Stricter than the previous year this time should include a valuation of sovereign debt, particularly that of Greece, at market value, and the EBA should require banks a minimum capital ratio "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% and not only by 7%.
According to European sources, the weakest banks will then have six months to build up their capital.
"The only real justification for recapitalization would be to reassure the markets," said Laurent Quignon, head of economics at BNP Paribas bank.
"But in terms of economic fundamentals, there is no more reason than all the banks are recapitalized today than yesterday."
According to Goldman Sachs, at least 50 out of 91 European banks could fail the new stress tests, indicating a need for 139 billion euros in fresh capital.
The terms of a bank recapitalization on the Old Continent will be the subject of intense negotiations from Monday, said President of the Eurogroup.
"LESS DIVIDENDS, BONUS UNDER"
The French government has already said that the State was ready to help banks, but for now it emphasizes the strengthening of capital by private capital, unlike what was done in 2008 and 2009 under the plan to help French banks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
"Banks will have to recapitalize on the basis of their results by distributing less dividends and less bonus," said Friday morning the Minister of Economy Baroin, Europe 1.
"If they can not, they will do in the markets.If markets are not sufficient, they will find partners and, ultimately limit, there will be an opportunity for European coordination. "
"For France, I want to say that I am confident in the ability of our banks to raise their profits and all means at their disposal to strengthen their capital base," added the Prime Minister Francois Fillon, in the afternoon during the parliamentary days of the UMP.
In line with the German position, France has already ruled out recourse to EFSF to recapitalize its banks.
"Policies must resolve the dilemma between the private shareholders of banks that do not want to hear about dilution and the market which requires recapitalization," said Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue.
"The calls for recapitalization by the European authorities can be cons-productive to the extent that they contribute to fuel concern for all banks," warns Laurent Quignon, at BNP Paribas. "What can paradoxically make raising capital more difficult for institutions that need it."
Deutsche Bank, which would need to raise 9 billion euros according to sources, has made it clear that it would avoid any forced recapitalization.
Air Liquide finds no significant decrease in demand of its customers and believes that the market environment for the group was relatively normal, except for some adjustments in the electronics, said Tuesday its CEO Benoît Potier.
"We do not see a significant drop in consumption by our customers.At this point we can say that the economy remains strong for Air Liquide, "said the boss of the world's largest industrial gases reporters.
He was speaking on the sidelines of the presentation of tests of electric vehicles to hydrogen at the Circuit de Marcoussis (Essonne).
"The environment was relatively normal, so the consumption of our customers large and small ways consistent with what we had until now," said Benoît Potier, whose group has clients in sectors as diverse as Health, refining and steel.
Air Liquide was confirmed in early August target steady growth in net profit in 2011 "in a normal environment."
Asked if he confirmed the group's objectives in 2011, Benoît Potier declined to comment, a few weeks before the publication of revenue for the third quarter scheduled Oct. 26.
The strategic plan "Alma 2015", introduced in December 2010, is an average annual growth of 8% to 10% of sales – compared to 9.2% as reported in the first half of 2011 – and a sustained increase of Net income in the past five years.
The share was down 1.18% to 85.66 euros by 24:50, outperforming the market, down 2.7%.
The new austerity measures agreed on Sunday will not allow Greece to limit the budget deficit to 7.4% of GDP in 2011 as it had promised. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Parliament during the vote of a new austerity plan, June 30, 2011.
Greece confirmed Sunday that it would not achieve the objective of reducing the public deficit set in June 2011, but recovered over the bar skid found its creditors in September, after the introduction of new measures austerity.
The draft budget for 2012 containing new objectives, to be tabled in parliament on Monday passed Sunday night during a special cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister George Papandreou, in which was set the difficult reduction plan public as required by international creditors Greece.According to the draft budget, in 2011, the deficit of Greece will be reduced to 8.5% of GDP against 10.5% in 2010. The deficit remains above the target of 7.4% of GDP set in the initial multi-year legislation passed in June, but it is significantly better than the projection made in early September by the troika of creditors which stood then at Athens around 9.5% of GDP, according to the press.
This exceeded the deficit target in 2011 means that Greece will need two billion more if only to fund its spending this year.It also means that tax increases and wage cuts announced over the last two months by the Papandreou government have failed to redress the country's finances.
Growth forecasts for the budget adopted in 2012 point to a contraction of 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and 2.0-2.5% next year. These figures are the latest IMF projections, but are much more pessimistic than the projections used to calculate the bailout plan of 109 billion euros on July 21, anticipating a growth of 0.6% in 2012.
The copy of the Greek government and its financial projections will be examined Monday by the finance ministers of the Eurogroup and Luxembourg on Tuesday to those of the European Union, which must decide whether or not pay the next tranche of 8 billion, vital to the troubled country.By the end of August, the government warned it would not take its goal of reducing the deficit mainly because of the worsening recession. Officials of the troika (EU-IMF-ECB) to inspect the country's public finances and fiscal consolidation had left Athens when requesting the introduction of new corrective action to reduce costs and increase revenue.
"The additional austerity measures announced for 2011 and 2012 equivalent to 6.6 billion euros," said the Ministry of Finance said in a statement Sunday. Among them are the introduction of a new tax on real estate levied on electricity bills, lower pensions in excess of 1,200 euros per month, lowering the threshold for income tax to 5,000 euros annually. VAT on food increased from 13 to 23% in September.
The main difficulty concerns the lay-off of some 30,000 public sector employees by creating a "reserve labor force" where they will be affected for a year with salaries reduced to 60% of their basic pay . After one year some will be laid off. The choice will be based on criteria of age, persons over 60 years to be entered automatically in the program. The mechanism of labor reserves in its final version is the most "painless socially speaking" it was possible to adopt, said government spokesman Elias Mossialos in a statement.
In 2012, the Greek government expects a further reduction of public deficits, by setting a target of 6.8% of GDP instead of 6.5% forecast in June, 14.65 billion euros.And Greece should reach next year for the first time a primary surplus of 3.2 billion euros of public finances, excluding debt service.
According to the newspaper Kathimerini, the Troika mission, which returned to Athens on Thursday after an absence of nearly a month, could continue until Friday, October 7. The German finance minister warned last week that no final decision would be taken on the payment or not the next aid installment loan of 110 billion made in May 2010 in Greece, before 13 October .
Starts of new homes in France in late August were up 17.4% year on year to 389,449 units, but only 7.4% over the last three months, to 83,153, show statistics released Tuesday by the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation and Housing.
The number of building permits issued for housing shows a parallel increase of 10.5% over the last 12 months to 490,620 and an increase of 10.6% over June to August, to 133,169.
"Over the past twelve months, new construction, representing over 87% of homes, rose 9.8% over the previous twelve months," the ministry said in a statement.
In the non-residential housing starts were up 7.3% over the past year to 25.35 million square meters, and 26.2% for the three months to 6.18 million m2.
Building permits granted for industrial or commercial premises are up 7.2% over the last 12 months to 36.22 million m2, and 2.8% over three months to 8.95 million m2.
