If the benefits of U.S. distributors to appear this week are as unimpressive as the results published so far companies, keeping Wall Street at the height of nine months will probably be difficult to justify.
Specialists believe that stock market investing in the U.S. market may resist a further increase, even with an agreement in the Greek case Monday and indicators confirming that the recovery is underway to United States.
Trading will resume on Tuesday, the markets are closed Monday for President's Day.
For the year 2012 was less than two months and the benchmark fund managers, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up over 8%. It is already higher than what many analysts were predicting the end of the year.
The index ended Friday at 1,361 points, its highest level since May 2011. In December, analysts polled by Reuters estimated that the index would end from 2012 to 1340 points.
If the index passed beyond 1370, it would be at its highest since June 2008, to its level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which took place in September 2008.
As for Dow Jones, he approaches the psychological level of 13,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite, that of 3000 points.
OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE
At the NYSE, 85% to 90% of the shares are treated above their 50-day moving average, said Bruce Zaro at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston. This is normally a sign that the market is overbought.
Bruce Zaro does not exclude a decrease of the S & P in the region of 1260-1270 in the short term.
Some experts, however, a passage above 1370 would be a buying opportunity.
"I'm kind of on the sidelines waiting to see it, but I'm down from there if it snaps," said Stephen Massocca, at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.
The percentage of companies that have published better than expected quarterly results is 64%, according to Thomson Reuters data, 404 companies have already published their accounts . This percentage has certainly improved since the beginning of the period of publication of accounts, but it is lower than 70% the last four quarters.
Among the major retailers will announce their quarterly profits this week include Wal-Mart and Home Depot.
Apart from the results and the Greek case, which should find a solution Monday, few indicators will be published this week: home sales new and old, consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan and registrations Weekly jobless.
To be continued as the general assembly of Apple Thursday and accounts of the first fiscal quarter of Hewkett-Packard on Wednesday.
The CBOE volatility index, also called fear index, fell 7.5% Friday, to 17.78. It is below the level of 25 for over two months, suggesting that investors are less worried about stock market prospects.
The Industry Minister, Eric Besson, promised that the potential beneficiaries of social tariffs for electricity consumption of course apply from 1 January even if the measure of automatic access is still not back in force.
While consumption in électricté soaring these days, the automatic assignment of social tariffs for electricity is still conspicuously absent. Yet the measure was to take effect January 1. This had been announced in the fall of Eric Besson, Minister of Energy. Faced with this bug, it has reiterated on Friday that the device, once it enters into force, will be properly applied "to the gas bills and electricity consumption corresponding to January 1, 2012." In other words retroactively.
This delay, which is expected to continue for several more weeks, is due to the fact that the "last formal consultations" between government and industry should always be held together with a notice of the State Council, said the Ministry of energy, confirming the information of Paris …
These special rates are reserved for beneficiaries of the Universal Health Coverage (CMU) or any person whose monthly income is less than 634 euros per month (for a single person). Entered into force in 2005 for electricity and gas in 2008, social tariffs were previously allocated upon application to rights-holders (the limit is 7800 euros in annual revenue to about a single person and 11,700 for childless couple, ed), but by lack of information or administrative complexity, many do not demand.
Only 600,000 households currently receive social tariffs so that 1.5 to 2 million are eligible, a situation that had prompted the government to promise its automation. The reduction is estimated by EDF and GDF Suez at about 90 euros per year for electricity and 140 euros for gas.
"The decree is under consideration by the Council of State, he should be able to give its opinion in the coming weeks, when he will have the last formal consultations that are normally involved in early (February editor's note) . The decree will be published in the coming days, "the ministry said.
In connection communication, the President of the Syndicat Intercommunal the outskirts of Paris for the Electricity and Communication Networks (Sipperec) Catherine Peyge said there was "urgent." Some 3.8 million households, or 14.4% of French households in the metropolis, are currently considered in fuel poverty, meaning they spend more than 10% of their budget on their energy bills, says she said. "What do public authorities to publish the decree and to end the anomaly whereby a tariff, decided in 2000, implemented in 2005, still can not protect the families who need? Meanwhile the prices of electricity rose by 6% in two years, and the bill could jump by 30% by 2016 ", criticized Ms. Peyge.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi said that the primary purpose of the institution is price stability. He refuses to do more to assist States in the euro area, noting that the "credibility" of the ECB is at stake The Governor of the Bank of Italy, Mario Draghi, should succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi Friday defended the independence of the institution subject to strong pressure to intervene financially better deal with the debt crisis, stressing that it was his "credibility" was at stake . "Our credibility implies the success of our monetary policy (consisting of) anchor the inflation outlook in the medium and long term (…) to sustain growth, job creation and financial stability.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended slightly higher Friday, recovering from the fall of the day in favor of positions suggesting investors anticipate the possibility of a rebound despite the persistence of the debt crisis in Europe
The Nikkei gained 0.16% or 13.67 points to 8,514.47 while the Topix, larger yielded 1.17 points (-0.16%) to 729.13.
On the whole a week marked by a deepening debt crisis with the record level by the Italian sovereign bond yield, the two indices lost 3.3% and 3%.
Title Olympus finished down 4.96% to 460 yen after a volatile session.
Suzuki Motor reported Monday a 6.2% increase in quarterly operating profit despite the impact on its sales of social movements in India, the first Japanese car market, which has maintained its forecast for the entire the 2011-2012 fiscal year.
The group's operating income for the period July-September second quarter of this year stood at 39.2 billion yen (365 million euros), while analysts had on average expected 25.6 billion yen.
Net income for Suzuki, owned 19.9% by Volkswagen as part of a partnership that turned sour, fell 13% to 13.3 billion yen while revenue declined by 6 , 6% to 618.8 billion.
Unemployment in Spain jumped to 21.5% in the third quarter, against 20.9% for the period April to June, show figures released Friday by the National Institute of Statistics.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the unemployment rate in the fourth largest economy in the euro area, the highest in the European Union, remains unchanged from the second quarter.
The Greek Parliament approved on Thursday its new austerity plan. It provides for the establishment layoffs of 30,000 employees. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou at the EU summit of June 23, 2011.
The Greek parliament adopted Thursday night by items, with the only voice of the majority Socialist, the new law austerity contested by the opposition and on the street by the unions. The Prime Minister, George Papandreou, welcomed the vote in a letter read by the Speaker of Parliament, and announced the deregistration of one Socialist MP and former Labour Minister Louka Katseli, which marked its difference by voting every items except 37, the freezing collevtives sectoral conventions.
At the request of the opposition, a registered ballot was held about twenty articles of the law's most controversial, or in addition to Article 37, those providing for new wage cuts and layoffs in the placement of some 30,000 people in the public sector. All members of the opposition present, 144 out of 146 voted against the second day of a general strike against these measures by the unions, and massive anti-austerity rallies interspersed with incidents.
The rest of the articles was adopted by a simplified procedure following the roll call vote, while the law had already adopted "in principle" on Wednesday night. A new formal vote "throughout the text" has been postponed to a later meeting, said the Chairman. The Ministry of Finance said earlier that it was only a formality.
The adoption of this law, required by the creditors of the country, European Union and International Monetary Fund fell "national responsibility", so that the country "avoid bankruptcy" by receiving a new tranche of international loans, said M . Papandreou. He also found that the country gained in strength and to negotiate in the EU and the euro area for a resolution of the problem of its indebtedness.
The euro was steady against the dollar Thursday morning before a possible decline in interest rates that could decide the European Central Bank during the last monetary policy meeting by its President Jean-Claude Trichet.
The euro, which rated approximately 1.3350 dollars, is notably supported after the commitment by Germany Wednesday to help its banks if necessary.
Be announced by the ECB at 24:45 GMT at the end of the meeting of its board of governors for the last time led by Jean-Claude Trichet? The issue is discussed.
The market economists expect a simple majority in monetary status quo – the main rate by the ECB would remain at 1.5%.But the voices of a growing number were heard to ask for a lower cost of money while the signs are increasing of a faltering economic recovery and as the financial crisis – bonds and bank – escalates .
However, inflation continued to rise in September in the euro area. It reached 3.0% annual rate, its highest level in nearly three years, against 2.5% in August, is already well above the objective of the ECB. However, the essential mission of the Central Bank of 17 countries in the euro area is to maintain prices at a level slightly below 2%.
If the ECB does not reduce the cost of credit, it could announce other support measures.Among the measures expected by the market, increased liquidity, recovery of tenders 12 months used for the last time in late 2009, handed to the current tastes of the program to purchase bonds (covered bonds).
According to a Reuters poll conducted last week, 56 of 75 economists said to anticipate a continuation of interest rates, but 13 anticipate a decline of 25 basis points in September and even predict a reduction of 50 points.
For example, JP Morgan Chase is expected to drop 50 points in the cost of money.
The single currency has lost about 10% against the greenback since its peak of 1.4550 dollars in late August, but is above the low point of his nine-month dollar hit 1.3145 this week.
Carmignac Gestion WANTS THE RATES TO ZERO
After raising rates twice this year in April and July, the ECB changed its stance at its September meeting and opened the door to future cuts.
She said that the risks to inflation were no longer on the upside but were "broadly balanced".
Since then, inflation was announced at 3%, but the signs of a slowdown have been confirmed.The U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs and others now provide even a "mild recession" for the eurozone in the fourth quarter.
Economist Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Tom Rogers believes that the ECB will reduce its rate to less than 1% if the economy falls into recession.
In a full page advertisement in the Financial Times on Wednesday, the French manager Carmignac Gestion, with assets under management amounted to 55 billion euros, asked Jean-Claude Trichet to go further and to reduce rates to zero.
"Goodbye, we do not regret it!" We read in the box presented in the form of a letter to the President of the ECB."This is your last chance to leave on a positive note."
According to many economists, it would be the next President of the ECB, Italian, Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Trichet decides to lower the house money before taking office.
They feel that if Mario Draghi had to take such action in its first monetary policy meeting in November, it might then be portrayed as a supporter of lower rates.
This would imply, however, that Jean-Claude Trichet left as the last measure of his eight-year term rate cuts in a context of high inflation: such a decision contrary to fundamental principles of the ECB, would be enough to ruffle the supporters of the 'budgetary orthodoxy.
Some as Carmignac criticized the ECB for not doing enough to fight against debt crisis in the euro area, but others, like the Bundesbank, the ECB's view that has already gone beyond its limits and it puts independence at risk.
The euro area may therefore have to await further signs of a slowdown, or a decline in inflation, to get a breath of fresh air in the form of lower rates.
Values to follow on Friday at the Paris Bourse.
* AXA. Offers for Axa Privaty Equity, private equity branch of the insurance group, must be filed by early next week, the Financial Times and The Tribune.
The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) said Thursday he would not consider an acquisition of Axa Private Equity.
* DEXIA. Belgian finance ministers and French planned to meet Monday to discuss the future of Dexia, a bank in the center of intense negotiations on a possible restructuring, write Friday Les Echos. No one was immediately available at Bercy or the Belgian Ministry of Finance to comment on this article.
* SOCIETE GENERALE.UBS lowered its recommendation to buy from neutral and cut its price target to 21 euros against 35 euros.
* SOITEC sought to reassure the market on sales growth plates in the first half of 2011-2012, two days after a warning from Advanced Micro Devices, its main customer, on their own perspectives.
Starts of new homes in France in late August were up 17.4% year on year to 389,449 units, but only 7.4% over the last three months, to 83,153, show statistics released Tuesday by the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation and Housing.
The number of building permits issued for housing shows a parallel increase of 10.5% over the last 12 months to 490,620 and an increase of 10.6% over June to August, to 133,169.
"Over the past twelve months, new construction, representing over 87% of homes, rose 9.8% over the previous twelve months," the ministry said in a statement.
In the non-residential housing starts were up 7.3% over the past year to 25.35 million square meters, and 26.2% for the three months to 6.18 million m2.
Building permits granted for industrial or commercial premises are up 7.2% over the last 12 months to 36.22 million m2, and 2.8% over three months to 8.95 million m2.
