China cut Saturday the amounts that banks must hold in reserve, thereby increasing their lending capacity of 400 billion yuan (48 billion euros), a measure taken to e avoid the risk of a sharp slowdown in the second largest economy.
People's Bank of China reduced the reserve ratio by 50 basis points, bringing it to 20.0%. This new amount will be effective next Friday May 18
This is the third decline in six months of the required reserve ratio, a decision just one day after the publication of macroeconomic data for the month of April have concerned investors, including the numbers of industrial production.
Economists had indeed thought that the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of 8.1% over one year was a record low and that the activity would be departing in the second quarter. Considering the recent statistics, this scenario does not seem to confirm.
"The central bank should cut its reserve requirement ratio after the first quarter. She missed the best possible time, "said Dong Xian'an, chief economist at Peking First Advisory
." A drop TODAY 'Today will have a lesser impact. The Chinese economy will therefore be more vulnerable to weak global economic conditions and a slowing Chinese economy will in turn have a negative impact on the global recovery. "..
…… "The uncertainties surrounding the global and Chinese economies increase," said Dong Xian'an
… …… Economists estimate that China's growth should be 8% per year to absorb the annual flow of new entrants to the labor market and rural land left to find work in the factory
. The central bank announced its first drop in the ratio of bank reserves for three years on November 30, lowering the rate of 50 basis points.
According to a Reuters poll conducted in January, economists estimate that the central bank will reduce the reserve ratio of 200 basis points in total in 2012, bringing it to 19%.
Moreover, despite the inflationary risks, some believe that lower interest rates is not excluded.
"The problem is that loan demand from companies is very low, therefore the lower reserve requirement ratio is not as effective as lower rates of intere ; t, because a decrease in the ratio of reserves does not change the cost of loans, "said Liu Junyu (China Merchants Bank).
"If the economy continues to be hesitant, it is likely that the government will opt for a lower interest rate."
Cash advance is meant to provide short term relief to borrowers. Since these loans charge high interest rates, rolling over the loan may not be very easy.
The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande. Its program in effect no longer perceived as a threat to investors. Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night.
The likely thrust of extremist parties in Greece, which could jeopardize the plan of assistance given to countries, markets further alarm that victory in the presidential election of Francois Hollande, whose program is no longer perceived as a threat by investors . "The week promises to be high risk, but paradoxically Greece weigh maybe more in the balance as the French election," said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at Credit Suisse.
Unlike 1981, the arrival of the socialist candidate for the Elysee should however not destabilize markets, which first opened in Asia in mid-European night. The Paris Bourse certainly gives ground for several weeks, but this trend is common to all European financial centers, plagued by fears about the economy of the eurozone. And the cost of refinancing the public debt of France has not increased more between the two rounds of presidential elections.
No challenge to the Treaty on the financial stability
Paris has borrowed Thursday nearly 7.5 billion euros at rates down. "Mr. Holland should not undermine the Treaty on European financial stability, but rather add to it a component of growth. On this point, it is not alone in wishing that in Europe, which tends to reassure "said Ms. Plagnol.
Long reluctant, Berlin is ready to work to "a growth pact for more competitiveness," the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, would also give this theme "at the center of the agenda" European. Mr. Holland on Sunday evening could have an exchange on these topics with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to one of his advisers.
If revenues diverge, more tracks are already being considered: increase the borrowing capacity of the European Investment Bank (EIB), spend more European structural funds in the euro area, establish 'project bonds', the European bonds for a specific project, or authorize the European Stability Mechanism (MES) to help a struggling industry and not just a state.
For Laurence Boone, chief economist for Europe U.S. investment bank Merrill Lynch, BofA, the alternation in France does not worry because "investors expect to conduct a moderate social policy".
Greece in the heart of concerns with the rise of extremist parties
Greece, whose people voted on Sunday for early elections, however crystallizes much more concern. Both sides pro-austerity, PASOK (Socialist) and New Democracy (right), who ruled together in a coalition since November 2011 collapsed in parliamentary elections Sunday, bringing together between 31 and 37% against more 77% in 2009, according to exit polls.
If they were confirmed, this collapse would make almost impossible the formation of a coalition government by both parties to continue the austerity dictated by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. "The country's creditors (IMF, EU and ECB) may at least temporarily suspend their aid," worries Stephane Deo at UBS. "The government can more quickly pay its civil servants and pensions, which will lead to very high tensions on financial markets," he warns.
In >>> Direct: Soon the results of the second round of the presidential election between Sarkozy and Holland
Standard & Poor's said Wednesday raising the rating to CCC from the Greek sovereign debt, which is no longer so in default, a decision no surprise since the country has reduced its liabilities by about a third after a debt restructuring complex and unprecedented.
S & P maintains this climate speculative grade ("junk") and warned that a deep recession, the unpredictable outcome of the elections on May 6 and wrath of public opinion against the austerity could threaten the efforts of Athens to redress its finances.
S & P, which matched the rating with a stable outlook, provides that Greek sovereign debt will remain high over the next three years, around 160 to 170% of GDP.
"The rating could be degraded if we believe that a forced exchange on what remains of the Greek private debt appears likely," the agency said in a statement.
Fitch was the first to recover the note by assigning a B-to Greece in the middle of March, after the establishment of the exchange procedure which reduced about 100 billion sovereign debt of the country and cost the private bondholders most of their assets.
S & P warned in February that it would report surely the Greek notes to CCC, upon completion of the exchange procedure.
Moody's is now the only agency to keep Greece in zone fault (likely in his case). She said it would review his notes "on time" but that any recovery would remain limited.
The action is Danone rebound Monday, with investors relieved after the announcement of the takeover by Nestle's division of child nutrition Pfizer, a redemption of $ 11.85 billion which the French group was also in the running.
At 2:50 p.m., the title Danone raises of 1.83% to 53.39 euros in a market down sharply (-2.15%).
"The rise in the stock is clearly related to the fact that it's not Nestle and Danone buys Pfizer infant nutrition. The price is very high and the market would like Danone uses his money for something else, "said one operator
. L action Danone had lost 3.55% Friday following a tip that he was outbid and proposed $ 11 billion to buy up Pfizer Nutrition
…. Analysts say ….. Danone had not the means to finance a transaction of this magnitude, even if it reduced its debt by nearly half since the acquisition of Numico in 2007 to 12.3 billion euros
. Danone's net debt was $ 6.6 billion end of 2011 euros, against 12 billion after the acquisition of Numico.
Natixis, the analyst Pierre Tegner observes that "the strategic importance of the lost battle (against Nestle) depend on the group's ability to recover some assets, either in Asia Southeast Asia (Philippines, etc..) and / or Latin America. "
According to Kyodo, Danone could increase its stake in Yakult Honsha to 28% against 20% today, and asked the group of Japanese drinks to name one of its managers to an executive position.
Francois Hollande wants to suspend the enforcement Nome establishing the conditions for resale by EDF of part of its electricity to its competitors, because it increases speculation in the market for electricity, announced Thursday for Energy with the Socialist candidate for president.
Francois Brottes believes that the Competition Authority "issued an indictment against the policy of opening the French electricity market" in favor of the review of a decree implementing this law.
The system "will strengthen the speculative nature of the electricity market in France and will further increase prices, since it will impact the electric bill of consumers to the tune of '200 to 500 million Euros per year, according to the Authority, "he says in a statement.
"A few days before an election critical to the future of France, it is urgent to suspend enforcement of the law Nome. Let the French can choose between two conceptions of e Energy: speculative, or public good, "he adds.
New organization of the French electricity market (Nome) allows alternative suppliers to buy electricity from EDF Nuclear, within an overall limit of 25% of the production capacity. Since 1 January, the resale price is set at 42 euros a megawatt hour.
The United States believes that European governments have not stopped the illegal subsidies to Airbus and will accordingly implement the first stage of the procedure before the Sanctions 'World Trade Organization (WTO), said Friday the U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk.
This initiative can in theory lead to penalties amounting to billions of dollars imposed on EU products.
"We refuse to remain inactive while companies and American workers are disadvantaged," said Ron Kirk in a statement.
The text clarifies the intent of the United States to ask the WTO to say whether the EU has complied with a previous decision of the organization de ; favorable state aid to Airbus.
There was never enough analysts, says a former Moody's and Standard Poor's has. Some had multiple dozens of folders and noted without sufficient data. Moody's in New York.
Former analysts rating agencies testified Wednesday in the Senate on their working conditions, reporting a dire shortage of manpower and intense competition among agencies that sometimes pushed to note without sufficient data .
The Senate on Tuesday launched a mission of information on credit rating agencies and which audition until July consult experts, former employees of agencies, debt issuers and investors in France and abroad.
"Your question is daunting, watermark, you ask us: + Did you know what you did? +, Told senators who questioned Anwar Hassoune, who spent seven years at Standard & Poor's and three years at Moody's. "The answer is + not + always. There is never enough analysts, "responded Normale Associate Management, a graduate of HEC and Sciences Po, who says he experienced analysts for 35 to 45 cases each
. "It is humanly impossible, we had to follow two Credit Agricole, it is not possible!", he said. For him, the analysis of Crédit Agricole would require "a battalion of a dozen analysts with 15, 20, 30 years of experience, knowing all the ins and outs of each business" of this banking giant. "But this is not sustainable economically because each entry will cost 500,000 euros and 600,000, including bonus" and your "business is dead," he said.
Behind this problem is the business model of agencies, the high margins they achieve for their shareholders, analysts have estimated the former. "It is rightly said that it is outrageous that agencies emerge as significant margins," said Catherine Gerst, who worked at Moody's Paris from 1991 to 2000, first as an analyst before becoming CEO.
Agencies who had "no obligation to reinvest in people," Ms. Gerst suggesting to create constraints of this type, for example to limit to 10 the number of entities to be processed by analyst. As for subprime ("subprime"), the agency had only two years of decline on these new products and noted "knowing full well they had no data" necessary, she lamented, explaining this fact by "too much competition between agencies."
While global stock markets fell Tuesday for fear of failing the Greek debt restructuring, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial ensures that the operation "should proceed smoothly."
Stop the panic that gripped markets. Two days before the deadline given to private creditors of Greece to accept or not the deletion of part of the country's debt, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Ollie Rehn, steps into the breach. In an interview with Le Figaro, he argues that the operation "should proceed smoothly." And adds: "From the information we collect, the debt swap should take place smoothly, as the transaction is financially attractive to the private sector"
The Finnish Commissioner was asked about whether the fact that the dreaded "credit default swaps" (CDS), these insurance contracts on default of payment to be triggered if the debt exchange operation went wrong. "It is not our preferred scenario. Instead," said Rehn, while anxiety has spread in the markets Tuesday.
European shares ended the session sharply down and banking stocks were particularly hard hit, indicating investors fears of a default of Greece as we approach the result of the restructuring of its indebtedness imposing. The rate of participation of private creditors should be at least 75% for Greece to erase part of its debt (107 of the 200 billion held by private creditors) and receive the second aid package of 130 billion approved last week in Brussels.
About a third aid plan, referred to by the German weekly Der Spiegel Sunday, "this is a hypothesis that has been circulating among Cassandra, I am not …", Rehn sweeps. "Let's focus instead on the implementation of the second rescue plan, which provides a unique erase debt," he told the BBC.
The Commissioner also stated "that the risk of explosion (the eurozone) is behind us." But "the recession is here, and unemployment is worrying," he says. "We are at a critical time in which member states must keep their budget commitments, to make the necessary structural reforms, while strengthening the firewall to anti-crisis 750 billion euros in Europe," Rehn recommends.
Coface, which last year refocused its activities on credit insurance, reiterated Tuesday his intention to return when the stock market but market conditions have improved.
Jean-Marc Pillu, the CEO of a subsidiary of Natixis, declined to say how soon the Coface, deregistration in 2002, envisioned a new IPO nor how much capital will be offered to investors.
"The track is always the same, this is the IPO as soon as conditions permit," he said at a news conference.
"The internal conditions are met to be placed on the market," he added. "After the second condition, it is the markets (financial, Ed). We will wait quietly, serenely they allow us to do this. "
Asked about refocusing on the Coface credit insurance ; said, he explained that the company had isolated a structure apart and owned by its parent non-core businesses it intends to transfer …
…… "These activities were in a separate structure, as Natixis, well insulated (…) but remain under the responsibility of the Directorate General of Coface at the operational level, "said Jean-Marc Pillu.
He also said that except for the German and Polish markets, factoring activities were managed for their extinction ("run off"), that is to say, they are intended to be phased out.
Due to the reorganization of its business, Coface has subsequently passed in its 2011 accounts for 49 million euros in restructuring charges after taxes.
Its CEO also said the company had raised 1.1 billion euros of financing for factoring after signing a contract with four banks of securitization.
"We are most indebted of all, we paid all our debts in the long run. I speak of parent company debt, "said Jean-Marc Pillu
. Returning to the proposed creation of a rating agency Europé ; enemies, envisaged a time before finally being abandoned in early 2011, the CEO of Coface said that the business of insurance credit scoring and no pre ; felt no synergies between them
. "It's not all the same job," he insisted .. …….
If the benefits of U.S. distributors to appear this week are as unimpressive as the results published so far companies, keeping Wall Street at the height of nine months will probably be difficult to justify.
Specialists believe that stock market investing in the U.S. market may resist a further increase, even with an agreement in the Greek case Monday and indicators confirming that the recovery is underway to United States.
Trading will resume on Tuesday, the markets are closed Monday for President's Day.
For the year 2012 was less than two months and the benchmark fund managers, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up over 8%. It is already higher than what many analysts were predicting the end of the year.
The index ended Friday at 1,361 points, its highest level since May 2011. In December, analysts polled by Reuters estimated that the index would end from 2012 to 1340 points.
If the index passed beyond 1370, it would be at its highest since June 2008, to its level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which took place in September 2008.
As for Dow Jones, he approaches the psychological level of 13,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite, that of 3000 points.
OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE
At the NYSE, 85% to 90% of the shares are treated above their 50-day moving average, said Bruce Zaro at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston. This is normally a sign that the market is overbought.
Bruce Zaro does not exclude a decrease of the S & P in the region of 1260-1270 in the short term.
Some experts, however, a passage above 1370 would be a buying opportunity.
"I'm kind of on the sidelines waiting to see it, but I'm down from there if it snaps," said Stephen Massocca, at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.
The percentage of companies that have published better than expected quarterly results is 64%, according to Thomson Reuters data, 404 companies have already published their accounts . This percentage has certainly improved since the beginning of the period of publication of accounts, but it is lower than 70% the last four quarters.
Among the major retailers will announce their quarterly profits this week include Wal-Mart and Home Depot.
Apart from the results and the Greek case, which should find a solution Monday, few indicators will be published this week: home sales new and old, consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan and registrations Weekly jobless.
To be continued as the general assembly of Apple Thursday and accounts of the first fiscal quarter of Hewkett-Packard on Wednesday.
The CBOE volatility index, also called fear index, fell 7.5% Friday, to 17.78. It is below the level of 25 for over two months, suggesting that investors are less worried about stock market prospects.
